Free Picks for NCAA Football – No.17 Arizona vs. Washington State

Handing out a free pick in NCAA football games that pose massive point spreads can either be a nightmare, or a gold mine depending on which side of the line you play.

When the 17th ranked Arizona Wildcats visit the Washington State Cougars with a -23.5 point line to cover, your first instinct is to take the ranked, home favorite. It naturally should be.

Part of the rationale for attacking such an enormous spread is usually based on defense. The Cougars are horrific to that end, allowing 42.8 points per game and Arizona waltzes in to this game with the league’s 5th best passing attack.

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There’s no nice way of saying it – Washington State has been a doormat for their Pac-10 brethren.

Yet, they’ve also been capable of disrupting the spread for the risky bettor who dances with the devil (and the points). Washington State is 3-2 ATS this season clearing the line against Oregon and UCLA. They lost their third Pac-10 matchup 16-50 at home against USC with a +22.0 handicap failing to protect them.

So if you’re looking for a free pick in NCAA football, the safest and most reliable bet is the TOTAL. I know that playing the TOTAL is like shooting yourself up the nose with a pistol loaded with a lone bullet, but chasing an OVER is actually more fun than getting mad that teams score touchdowns.

No.17 Arizona Wildcats (4-1) vs. Washington State (1-5)
Saturday, October 16th — Martin Stadium — 7:30pm EST
NCAA Football Line: Arizona -23.5

In this matchup, at least, the OVER seems to be a secure bet. Arizona has gone 2-2 in terms of the OVER/UNDER and Washington State is a comforting 4-1 because their defense spreads its proverbial legs apart for opponents to do whatever damage they can muster.

If your preference is to take the points, then perhaps the best advice I can give you in terms of free picks for NCAA football is to look at Arizona’s defense.

And one quick look at the stat sheet tells you clearly that Arizona is very capable on the other side of the football. They rank 10th in the nation with just 14.6 points allowed per game.

Still, the defense isn’t my concern. The offense has averaged just 18.5 points in their last two games, which is nearly less than half of what they average overall. I can’t help but feel that the offense is normalizing on them.

Arizona’s offense should put up plenty of points if they play to their potential, but the fact is that they haven’t in the past two weeks.

Whatever’s ailing them may be remedied by the time they get to Martin Stadium this weekend, but if you’re asking for  free picks in NCAA football, I have to follow the metrics and believe that Arizona’s offense will fail to cover this spread while the Cougars sneak on the board for a few unexpected scores.

Free Picks (NCAA Football) – Washington State +23.5 (OVER)