Free NFL Spread Picks for Week 5

If this NFL betting season is proving anything, it’s that this season is going to be as unpredictable as ever. The Colts have lost to two divisional opponents, and the Saints are winless against the spread. Bad games are turning into good games, and blowouts are becoming nail biters. What does that mean? That you can’t sleep on any of the NFL spreads this weekend.

BUFFALO BILLS +1.0 over Jacksonville Jaguars

This sports betting number is a pure indication of how bad the Jacksonville Jaguars actually are. Even with a thrilling victory over the Indianapolis Colts, Jack del Rio’s boys can’t get any damn respect. Frankly, they don’t deserve any.

Part of the reason for such a tight line against a winless bunch of scrubs like the Buffalo Bills is that Jacksonville is just 1-6 SU/ATS when playing on the road. The other thing killing dreams in Jacksonville is an atrocious pass defense, which gives up 303.8 yards per game.

I’m not saying that Buffalo is a good team, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is proving he can put up points and move the ball. The fact that they went 0-10 on third-down conversions against the Jets doesn’t say much for this matchup. You can’t compare the Jets’ defense to the Jaguars’.

Free NFL Pick: Bills +1

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DETROIT LIONS -3.0 over St. Louis Rams

Despite going 0-4 SU throughout the season, the Lions are getting better every week. A near-win in Green Bay should be proof of that, and the fact that Shaun Hill is finally connecting with Calvin Johnson is extremely encouraging.

This may seem like a screwy pick from me, especially since I’ve been touting the St. Louis Rams to win the NFC West out of nowhere, but the Rams have proven nothing on the road. I like this Sam Bradford kid, but until he’s won a big game on the road away from his home fans, you have to go against them. 

Detroit is a bad team, but they can’t go winless. This is one of the few games they can win without Matthew Stafford.

Free NFL Spread Pick: Lions -3

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 over CINCINNATI BENGALS

Why do I like this line so much for Tampa Bay on the road? Well, first off, they’re coming off a bye week, which gives them two weeks to prepare for this game. Second of all, as we saw with the Titans against the Steelers in Week 1, you can’t discredit a team for getting busted up by Mike Tomlin’s defense. The Bucs are a dangerous team, especially with the advanced progress of one Joshua Freeman at quarterback.

Now, the inverse is what everyone is saying about the Bengals. This sports betting line opened at -5.5 and moved away from the Bucs because the public generally doesn’t risk their sports betting lives on a fledgling team they know very little about.

But here’s what we know about Cincinnati: 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall, 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Tampa Bay; and Carson Palmer looks like he has some sort of talent-degenerating disease. Does that sound like a team worth betting on?

Free Football Pick: Buccaneers +6.5

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Tennessee Titans +7 over DALLAS COWBOYS

Call it a hunch, but I’m not putting too much stock in a blowout win over the Texans in Week 3. We’ve seen the Dallas Cowboys implode too many times during regular season NFL lately to consider them a reliable sports betting stalwart. They’re 1-4 ATS in their past 5 games for a reason.

The strange thing about the Titans is that they keep flipping wins and losses (which makes them due for a win). Their defense has a weird talent for getting under the skin of hyper aggressive offenses, and there’s probably no set of stars more emotionally volatile than Roy Williams, Dez Bryant and Tony Romo.

Usually teams coming off bye weeks get an advantage, but there’s something about the hot-and-cold Cowboys I really don’t like. They need to be in a winning streak to be worth your sports betting attention, and I think the week off has disrupted whatever mojo they gained against Houston. Bet Titans.

Free NFL Pick: Titans +7