Free Betting Tips – Green Bay vs Washington

In presenting our free betting tips for Sunday’s NFL action, we are now wondering, along with some fans, what happened to that Green Bay "freight train." The Packers looked like world-beaters in the first two games of the season, then came down to earth in the last two,  losing one of them straight-up and failing to get the cover last week. On Sunday the pack visits the nation’s capital (or at least the surrounding area) to play the Washington Redskins, in a game that begins at 1 PM ET at FedEx Field in Landover, MD (natural turf). In the NFL betting odds, Green Bay is a 2.5-point road favorite, with the total on the game listed at 44 points. It is with these numbers that we will offer our free betting tips for this game.

Green Bay Packers (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) at Washington Redskins (2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS)

Live at FedEx Field
Landover, MD
Sunday, October 10 –  1 PM ET
TV:  Fox

NFL Betting Odds:
Green Bay  -2.5
Washington +2.5
Total  44

Here are some of the trends as they impact the free betting tips we give on this game:

• Green Bay has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
• Green Bay has won ten of its last 13 games SU
• Green Bay has played five of its last seven road games UNDER the total
• Washington has played ten of its last 14 games OVER the total
• Washington has lost 12 of its last 16 games SU
• Washington is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 home games
• Washington has played 12 of its last 17 home games UNDER the total
• Washington has played five of its last seven home games OVER the total
• Washington has lost four of its last five home games SU

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Key stats for Green Bay –  Last year the Packer shad all kinds of problems protecting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. This season he’s been sacked only five times in four games, while Green Bay has dumped opposing signal-callers 16 times. Speaking of Rodgers, he has completed just below 69% of his passes and has thrown for 7.7 yards an attempt. Green Bay has been not been sharp in defending against opposing running games; in fact, the Packers have allowed 5.2 yards per rush attempt. One free betting tip we could offer is to take Ryan Torain in your fantasy league, but it may not be as simple as all that.

Key stats for Washington — The Redskins have not been a second half team, scoring only 13 points in the final 30 minutes of their first four games. Washington has converted on only 25% of their third down attempts, which makes them the second worst team in the NFL in that category. We mentioned Ryan Torain, and the former Arizona State star, who is the featured back now that Clinton Portis is out with a groin injury, has averaged 4.6 yards per rush.

Here are the head-to-head betting trends as they involve our free betting tips on this game:

• Green Bay is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings
• Five of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
• Green Bay has won four of the last five meetings SU

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To illustrate how up-and-down this whole NFL thing is, the Redskins go out and play three-quarters of a game against the Houston Texans, which they find out wasn’t enough, then they go to St. Louis and lose to a Rams team that hadn’t won too many games in recent years. Then they win at Philadelphia in the return of Donovan McNabb, who we should mention was just 8 of 19 for 125 yards in the game. The point is, Washington won without a big game from him, and that is something we keep in mind when offering this free betting tip.

The Redskins may be in a dilemma in terms of the depth in their backfield with Portis out 4-6 weeks and maybe gone forever after that groin injury. But has anyone noticed that the Packers are not getting very much out of Brandon Jackson, who had to assume the #1 back’s role after Ryan Grant’s season-ending injury? Jackson has 74 yards on 27 carries in the last three games. John Kuhn, a fullback, has been getting the ball more, but he’s been limited. As we evaluate our free betting tip, we recognize this as a problem for the Packers, because as Rodgers is forced to throw more and more, that will play into the Redskins’ strengths; namely, its secondary and a pass rush anchored by Brian Orakpo.

I’d like to be able to take the points here in this free betting tip; I really do. But the fundamentals just aren’t there for me to do it. McNabb isn’t as mobile as he used to be, and so he will find himself vulnerable to the pass rush. And Washington will be hoping that Torain will come up with a big game. I’m going to take a guess that Green Bay fires for all four quarters, so it’s more difficult for McNabb to trade points. The Packers can win by a field goal at this location, and frankly Washington caught a big break when Michael Vick was knocked out of last week’s game. It’s Green Bay in our free betting tip for Sunday.

JAY’S PLAY:  GREEN BAY -2.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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