Free Betting Tips – Green Bay Hosts Dallas on Sunday Night Football

Giving out free football betting tips on the Sunday night tilt between the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field should be a piece of cake. But a closer look at Dallas’s offensive numbers reveal that Tony Romo isn’t the whole problem, and that makes this matchup much more difficult to grade from a handicapping standpoint.

When Romo was in the lineup, the Dallas Cowboys averaged around 20.0 points per game. Not a great stat for a “high powered” offense. With Jon Kitna in the fold since the Romosexual’s injuries, they’ve put up just over 22.5 points per game overall as a team. You also have to factor in that Kitna won’t cough up four interceptions like he did against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

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Simply put, this game’s line is much harder to give out free betting tips on than a first glance would suggest. The fact remains that Tony Romo wasn’t putting up amazing numbers, and it’s not beyond Jon Kitna to be nothing more or less than two steps down from Romo (i.e. he’s more in the Randy Fitzpatrick, Matt Moore zone and it’s debatable that Romo wasn’t there to begin with).

This isn’t meant to suggest that I’m about to hand a free betting tip to buy in on the Dallas Cowboys completely. I’m simply trying to emphasize that they aren’t that much different with or without Tony Romo from a statistical vantage point. The public merely thinks that way, and that’s dangerous.

Dallas Cowboys (1-6) vs. Green Bay Packers (5-3)

Sunday, November 7th — Lambeau Field — 8:20pm EST

NFL Betting Line: Green Bay -7.5 (45.5)

The problem with this line is that Green Bay has been winning and losing tight games all season. All free betting tips from the preseason that projected Green Bay as the most prolific offense in the league went out the window when they last Ryan Grant and their playmaking tight end Jermichael Finely.

Green Bay has been just +1.8 better than their opponents in the last five games, which is not a huge advantage from a betting standpoint. Though Dallas is without their supposed star quarterback, Green Bay is not the same high scoring offense that we had hoped and that should affect how you bet this line.

It certainly doesn’t boost hopes that Green Bay is 3-11 SU and ATS in their last 14 games against Dallas, and just 2-4 ATS in their past 6 games. They’ve had a world of trouble adjusting to being a gritty, short passing offense.

Plenty of my brain cells are reminding me that Dallas’s defense does not have many injuries, and they were put on their heels thanks to Kitna’s flurry of interceptions last weekend. The Cowboys know that they have to rely on their defense in this game, and Green Bay is fairly easy to gameplan against. Dallas ranks 4th in road passing defense, allowing just 156.7 yards per game.

Dallas is capable of going to the ground against Green Bay’s ridiculously bad rush defense. Part of what makes the Packers so vulnerable on the ground is that they are missing almost their entire starting secondary. There just aren’t enough levels of intelligent coverage to stop Dallas’s rushing game, and expect Felix Jones and Marion Barber to have a very busy day.

Don’t get ahead of me here. Dallas can’t win this game. They simply don’t have the offense to put up that kind of points on the road. But this is going to be a very sloppy affair, and Green Bay will have to resort to a lot of predictable passing routes to try and move the chains. This is not a game that Green Bay can win outright. Frankly, I’m not sure they can win any game outright.

The Cowboys are winless against their opponents and the oddsmakers in the past four games, but I’m willing to give a free betting tip with my name attached that they cover on Sunday night. Green Bay is designed to win tight games and this will be a nail biter when all is said and done.

Furiously Free Betting Tip – Dallas +7.5 (UNDER)

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