Football Picks – Oregon Express to Roll at Cal

As we make our football picks this week we consider the case of the Oregon Ducks, rated #1 in the country and quickly building a legend with its high-paced offense that has been bludgeoning opponents, and we wonder whether that express can continue to roll against California on Saturday.

This Pac-10 game is scheduled to get underway at 7:30 PM ET at Memorial Stadium (artificial turf) at Berkeley, CA. In the college football odds, the Ducks are a 19.5-point favorite, with the total on the game posted at 58.5 points. We will make our football picks today based upon those numbers.

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Oregon Ducks (9-0 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) at California Golden Bears (5-4 SU, 4-4 ATS)

Live at Memorial Stadium

Berkeley, CA

Saturday, November 13 — 7:30 PM ET

TV: ESPN

College Football Betting Lines:

Oregon -19.5
California +19.5

Total 58.5

Here are some of the trends as they might impact our football picks on this game:

· Oregon has won 12 of its last 13 games SU
· Oregon has played 13 of its last 15 games OVER the total
· Oregon has covered two of its last six road games
· Oregon has won its last five road games SU
· Oregon has played six of its last seven road games OVER the total
· California has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
· California has won 17 of its last 20 home games SU

Key stats for Oregon — The Ducks are not only #1 in the polls, and in the BCS rankings, they are #1 in total offense, at 567 yards a game and #1 in scoring, at 54.7 points a game.

Oregon has gained 305 yards a game rushing, and quarterback Darron Thomas is 15th in the nation in passing efficiency, with 62% completions and 22 TD passes. :LaMichael James leads the nation in rushing, with over 166 yards a game.

He has averaged 6.8 yards a carry. Cliff Harris is second in the nation in punt returns, averaging almost 22 yards a pop. On defense, Oregon is 29th overall. They are 8th in tackles for loss and eleventh in sacks, and when we make our football picks, it is this overlooked part of their game that deserves some consideration.

Key stats for California — The Bears are 12th nationally in total defense, giving up[ a shade under 300 yards a game. They are also allowing 3.7 yards a carry. California is 73rd in total offense, and they have a new quarterback at the helm.

Brock Mansion has completed 26 of 49 passes for 312 yards. The main cog in the offense is Shane Vereen, who has rushed for 886 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Here are some of the head-to-head trends that may influence our football picks on this game:

· California has won four of the last six meetings SU
· California has covered three of the last four meetings
· Five of the last seven meetings have gone UNDER the total

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California is one of those teams that gives off the impression of a chronic overachiever, and last year they simply laid down at Eugene, getting outgained 524-207 by an Oregon team that was not as good as this one.

The problem with handicapping Cal for our football picks is that while the Bears play like lambs on the road – indeed, their decimation of UCLA and Arizona State recently made them look like BCS contenders.

But they barely managed any offense at all at Oregon State and had a scare against Washington State, which was in the game right until the end.

Brock mansion stepped into action in place of the injured Kevin Riley a couple of weeks ago and he has been serviceable, though nothing out of the ordinary.

Not Riley was anything spectacular either, but the last thing Cal really needs is to have a newcomer in the saddle when they may have to come back form a deficit early in the game.

Oregon can score in a couple of minutes or less on a drive, and California, which is likely to turn to the ground game (led by the capable Shane Vereen) more and more, which makes it hard to play catch-up.

We have to say we are wary about laying this kind of number on the road, and especially at a venue like Berkeley, but by virtue of the accelerated pace of Oregon football, we have been seeing overs, even when the Ducks don’t appear to be having a great offensive day.

Those days have been few and far between, however. In our football picks this week we’ll once again go over the total.

JAY’S PLAY: OVER 59.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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