Football Picks – Higher Poll Finish: Virginia Tech or Iowa?

Since Virginia Tech and Iowa are both expected to contend for conference championships in 2010 (at the very least), a comparison of these two teams for football picks is going to require analysis beyond the schedules. Yet, one has to start with an examination of the slates for each of these college football powers.

Each team has one really tough non-conference game this season. Iowa must go to Arizona for a September showdown against a Pac-10 contender. Iowa’s defense will have to reel in ‘Zona quarterback Nick Foles and contain the Wildcats’ turbo-charged offense. Virginia Tech also has a September night fight on the docket, as the Hokies tackle Boise State in the best game of week one. Iowa is on the road, while Tech is playing what basically amounts to a home game, but Boise State is a far more difficult opponent than Arizona. On non-conference schedules alone, Iowa gets the edge.

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In the realm of conference play, this debate between the Hawkeyes and Hokies does not become easier to settle. Iowa plays in the more rugged Big Ten, while Virginia Tech plays in the comparatively weaker ACC, but Iowa got the benefit of the home-away equation this season. The Hawkeyes’ three toughest Big Ten games – against Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State – are all at home in Iowa City. Virginia Tech gets its toughest ACC Coastal Division contest at home – the Hokies host Georgia Tech in a five-star throwdown on November 4 – but the boys from Blacksburg, Virginia, must go to North Carolina and Miami in consecutive weeks. Virginia Tech is probably better than both of those opponents, but playing them on back-to-back weekends makes it more likely that the Hokies will lose one of those games.

In saying just a little bit more about the schedules, there are tricky games which could sneak up on either Iowa or Virginia Tech. For Iowa, the two-game road swing at Indiana and Northwestern could very well prove to be harder than it appears on the surface. After all, Indiana took a 21-7 lead against the Hawkeyes last year at Kinnick Stadium, and should have been awarded a touchdown that would have given the Hoosiers a 28-14 lead. Iowa did rally for a deceptive 42-24 victory, but Indiana put a big scare into the hearts of the Hawkeyes. Northwestern then went into Iowa City the following week and took advantage of an injury to Hawkeye quarterback Ricky Stanzi. Iowa should take care of both Indiana and Northwestern, but if last year is any indication, that two-game stretch could be a lot tougher.

Football picks experts know that Virginia Tech should similarly take care of a two-game roadie at Boston College and North Carolina State, but both the Eagles and Wolfpack have the tools to be spoilers. Boston College’s defense-first style and N.C. State’s explosive quarterback, Russell Wilson, could both upend Virginia Tech if everything falls into place; Tech will just have to be vigilant and sharp in Chestnut Hill and Raleigh.

The big question is this: If both teams finish 10-2, which they could very well do, who will get the higher ranking? Iowa comes from a more prestigious conference, but Virginia Tech’s game against Boise State is greater in stature. A loss to Boise would not create a huge rankings hit for Virginia Tech. Similarly, though, Iowa would not get punished for losing to Ohio State.

There are two bottom lines on this comparison: Iowa has a better chance of finishing with the higher record, but if both teams lose twice, Virginia Tech has the slightly better chance of finishing with a higher ranking. Ultimately, advantage Tech, by a nose.

College Football Picks: Virginia Tech