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Football Picks – Boise Continues to Ride in Style

November 12, 2010

Our football picks for this coming Friday center around the Boise State Broncos, who continue to ride in "style" as they run up scores to impress those voting in the college football polls.

The Broncos, who are stuck at #4 anywhere you look, will visit the Idaho Vandals in Western Athletic Conference action that is set to get underway at 9 PM ET at the Kibbie Dome (artificial turf) in Moscow, ID.

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Boise State is a 34.5-point favorite in the college football odds in this game, with the total posted at 63.5 points. On the basis of those numbers, we will make our football picks for this game.

Boise State Broncos (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) at Idaho Vandals (4-5 SU, 3-5 ATS)

Live at the Kibbie Dome

Moscow, ID

Friday, November 12 — 9 PM ET

TV: ESPN

College Football Betting Odds:

Boise State -34.5
Idaho +34.5

Total 63.5

Here are some of the trends as they might impact our football picks on this game:

· Boise State has won 34 of its last 35 games SU
· Boise State has played eight of its last 12 road games OVER the total
· Idaho has lost four of its last six games SU
· Idaho has covered one of its last six games
· Idaho has won four of its last five home games SU

Key stats for Boise State — The Broncos are in the enviable position of being second in the nation in both total offense AND total defense; scoring offense AND scoring defense.

They’ve allowed only six touchdown passes on the season and two yards per rush. here is a team that is ranked second in sacks, second in tackles for loss, and third in least sacks allowed.

Kellen Moore, the quarterback, is #1 in the country in passing efficiency, with 21 TD’s, four interceptions and eleven yards an attempt, which also leads the nation. Boise State is last in the country in one category – net punting. That probably won’t influence our football pick too much.

Key stats for Idaho — The Vandals are fourth in the nation in passing offense, averaging 331 yards a game. Quarterback Nathan Enderle, considered an NFL prospect, has completed 57% of his throws, with 12 interceptions. he is 67th nationally in passing efficiency.

Idaho is 103rd in total defense, and does not have much of a rushing attack, chalking up 83 yards a contest. It’s been tough to protect Enderle too; they have given up 32 sacks.

Here are some of the head-to-head trends that may influence our football picks on this game:

· Boise State has won the last eleven meetings SU
· Boise State has covered four of the last six meetings
· Five of the last six meetings have gone OVER the total
· Boise State has won the last six meetings SU as the road team

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Could it be time for Boise State to score some more "style points," and is that the operative factor in our football pick for Friday? Well, Idaho’s defense would seem to be rather accommodating, as it gave up the monstrous figure of 844 yards last week against Nevada.

That defensive ineptitude was well-balanced, as the Vandals surrendered 452 yards on the ground (well over eight yards a carry) and 391 passing yards from Colin Kaepernick.

Enderle can operate, that is, if he can get time, but his offensive line has not done him any favors, and Boise State gets pressure. The back door might not be wide open for Idaho, but I expect that it will be because Boise State will be looking to put as much on the board as possible.

The Broncos are frustrated, and are stuck in neutral, to an extent. They keep winning, but now they are at #4 in the Associated Press, Coaches’ and BCS rankings, behind Oregon, Auburn and TCU.

How could they get to the BCS, and specifically, the BCS title game? Well, one way might be to look extremely impressive when they get the chance to play on national television. Well, here’s another chance, and they are about as well-tooled on offense as anybody in the country.

I think this will translate into a better totals play than anything else, as if there is some "garbage" action by Idaho that will only help us. So our football pick is the "over" in this Friday night game. maybe the visiting team takes care of it all by itself.

JAY’S PLAY: OVER 63.5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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