Football Odds – TCU Aims To Clinch Mountain West This Weekend

The TCU Horned Frogs can win the Mountain West Conference championship if they beat the San Diego State Aztecs this weekend in Fort Worth, Texas. Football odds makers have set a line, so here is a preview and pick:

San Diego State Aztecs @ TCU Horned Frogs

Saturday, November 13th – 4:05 PM ET

Amon Carter Stadium, Forth Worth, TX
Broadcast: Versus
Football Odds: San Diego State +27, TCU -27
Total: 53.5

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So, as everyone predicted back in August, the last team with a shot at upending the TCU Horned Frogs for the 2010 Mountain West Conference football championship is… the San Diego State Aztecs???!!!

No one thought San Diego State would be the last team left standing other than TCU. The Horned Frogs were the consensus pick to win the league, but Utah was naturally the team that everyone thought would offer the most resistance to coach Gary Patterson’s guys. While it’s still likely that Utah will eventually wind up as the second-place team in the Mountain West, the reality at the present moment is this: TCU will wrap up the league title with a win on Saturday in the friendly confines of its home ballpark, Amon Carter Stadium. San Diego State, in turn, can prevent that from happening. The Aztecs aren’t playing to keep Utah alive in the conference race; the boys from Southern California are actually the one team other than TCU which controls its fate in this league.

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Yes, if San Diego State beats TCU and then takes down Utah on Nov. 20, coach Brady Hoke’s bunch would be able to win the conference on Nov. 27 against lowly UNLV. The Rebels are the easy part for SDSU, and since Utah is a home game, the Aztecs could very possibly win that confrontation against the same team TCU recently humiliated. It’s this fight with the Frogs which is the hardest rock to climb for Hoke’s heroes.

TCU is smelling a perfect season and a BCS bowl invite – maybe even a spot in the BCS National Championship Game – so the Frogs are going to be motivated on Saturday. They have an off week on Nov. 20, so it’s not as though they have anything to look ahead to or be distracted by. Perhaps TCU could have a slight-to-moderate hangover effect after the intoxicatingly decisive thumping of Utah, but with so much on the line for the Horned Frogs, one shouldn’t expect TCU to step off the gas pedal now.

Football Odds: What San Diego State Has To Do To Win

The Aztecs and defensive coordinator Rocky Long, who knows TCU from his days as the former head coach at New Mexico, will have to produce something special if they want to disrupt TCU quarterback Andy Dalton and thwart the Horned Frogs’ offense.

Yes, SDSU running back Ronnie Hillman – the meal ticket for the Aztecs’ offense all season long – will need to roll up big numbers and keep TCU’s offense off the field, but the Horned Frogs can strike so quickly that San Diego State must devote the bulk of its attention to defense. Without a steady stream of stops, the visitors from the West Coast simply won’t be able to keep up. San Diego State needs to shorten this game, of course, but it also must produce a defensive gem if it’s going to pull off the upset.

Football Odds: What TCU Has To Do To Win

The biggest advantage the Horned Frogs have in this game is that TCU quarterback Andy Dalton – markedly inconsistent through the first two months of the season – is a fully confident player at the moment. Dalton had his very best outing of 2010 at Utah, precisely when his teammates needed him to come up big. Dalton shook off his history of main-event nerves and threw darts for big vertical pass plays that rocked Utah’s secondary to the core. Dalton comprehensively banished his demons and should be in position to flourish against San Diego State.

Football Odds: Outlook & Pick

TCU wants the Mountain West, the perfect season, and a shot at the national title. The Horned Frogs are hungry, they’re at home, and they’re a lot better than San Diego State. They’ll cover the number with ease.

Football Odds Pick: TCU -27