Football Odds – Northern Illinois, Toledo Battle for MAC West Lead

Customers who analyze the football beting odds in the Mid-American Conference will be watching closely on Tuesday night as two teams battle it out for the MAC West division lead. The Toledo Rockets and the Northern Illinois Huskies meet up in a game that will be televised on ESPN2. Kickoff is slated for 7 PM ET at Huskie Stadium (artificial turf) in DeKalb, IL.

The football odds in this game reflect something a little different than the respective conference record would imply; Northern Illinois is an 11.5-point favorite.

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Toledo Rockets (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) at Northern Illinois Huskies (7-2 SU, 6-1-1 ATS)

Live at Huskie Stadium

DeKalb, IL

Tuesday, November 9 — 7 PM ET

TV:   ESPN2

Football Odds:

Northern Illinois -11.5

Toledo +11.5

Here are some of the trends as they might impact the football odds on this game:

• Toledo has won six of its last eight games SU
• Toledo has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
• Toledo has won four of its last five road games SU
• Northern Illinois is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games
• Northern Illinois has won its last six games SU
• Northern Illinois has won its last eight home games SU

Key stats for Toledo — Well, the Rockets are going to depend largely on defense. Toledo seems to do a decent job against opposition rushing attacks, allowing just 3.5 yards a carry and 116 yards a game. They pressure the passer (21 sacks) and they have picked off 16 passes; just a couple of teams in the country have intercepted more. The Rockets are ninth in the nation in turnover margin, which really helps when you’re trying to beat the football odds. yet they are allowing a point for every 14 yards gained by the opposition, which is not a very good figure. Austin Dantin has thrown just seven TD passes (eight interceptions), but he is out of this game with a shoulder injury. And Toledo has tallied 3.8 yards per rushing attempt.

Key stats for Northern Illinois — The Huskies like to travel by ground. NIU is eleventh in the nation in running the football, and very few teams have done better than their 5.6 yards a carry. This is the school that has sent the likes of Michael Turner and Garrett Wolfe into the NFL. Chad Spann is the leading rusher this season, averaging 111 yards. Chandler Harnish supplies balance from the quarterback position; he’s been intercepted only four times and has connected on 66% of his throws. This team has balance on defense as well; the Huskies rank 26th against the pass and have posted 14 interceptions, and are 35th in rushing defense, yielding four yards a carry.

Here are some of the head-to-head trends that may influence our football betting advice on this game:

• Toledo has won eleven of the last 13 meetings SU
• Toledo is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings
• Toledo has won five of the last six meetings SU as the road team
• Toledo is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings as the road team

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Toledo is on a three-game winning streak as it has become bowl-eligible for coach Tim Beckman. They are also undefeated in the conference, and are tired for the MAC West division lead with the Northern Illinois team they play on Tuesday, which is on a 6-0-1 ATS run in the football odds. Terrance Owens threw four touchdown passes in Dantin’s place against Eastern Michigan, but that was against a 1-8, injury-ravaged team. Owens, a sophomore, has at least demonstrated that he can execute a little, throwing 41 passes without an interception. But those are the only 41 passes he has thrown in his collegiate career.

Can Toledo keep this within double digits in the football odds? Well, the Rockets were outclassed against Arizona and Boise State, and laid an egg in a very winnable home game against Wyoming. But they have scored four wins on the road. Included was a victory at Purdue. This is probably the toughest game on the conference schedule. But the Rockets are road-tested, they can keep this game under control with their defense, and Owens can do more than a serviceable job at quarterback. This left-hander is like a MAC version of Michael Vick; he can throw the ball down the field to stretch the defense; his TD passes went for 74, 68 and 53 yards last week, and he can pull the ball down and run with it. We’ll grab the points in the football odds in this key MAC matchup.

JAY’S PLAY:  TOLEDO +11.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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