Football Odds – Idaho Tries To Ride Adrenaline To Upset Of In-State Rival

Football odds makers will watch the Idaho Vandals try to shock the world as they face their hated rival on Friday night, but they aren’t expecting it.

Boise State Broncos @ Idaho Vandals

Friday, November 12th – 9:05 PM ET
Kibbie Dome, Moscow, ID
Broadcast: ESPN2
Football Odds: Boise State -34.5, Idaho +34.5
Total: 63.5

Two competing tensions will be at work when the Boise State Broncos take the field Friday night against the Idaho Vandals. It’s far more likely that one force will overpower the other, but then again, this is why people play games in actuality and not on paper.

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The line of thought that sides with Idaho is that the Vandals are playing a rivalry game on home turf at the Kibbie Dome. These two schools hate each other with a bitter and abiding passion. Boise State is leaving Idaho’s conference next year in an attempt to move up to what it views as the big leagues. Big brother wants to play in the Mountain West Conference and leave little brother behind in Moscow. Last year, Idaho produced a bowl-winning team and was able to shrug off a loss to Boise State in Boise. This year, with Idaho sitting at 4-5 in the midst of a 13-game schedule (WAC counterpart Hawaii is also playing 13 games this year, for the record), a home date with Boise essentially serves as the Vandals’ bowl game. If they win it, they will have already made their season. Moreover, though, coach Robb Akey’s athletes would have a good chance to finish 7-6 and stay in the running for a postseason invite in a landscape with 35 available bowls. On the other hand, a loss would put a dispirited bunch at 4-6, the reby forcing Idaho to win each of its last three games, one of which is a daunting road game at Fresno State.

Football Odds Handicapping: What Boise State Has To Do To Win

The Broncos – up against a Hawaii team that throttled Idaho, 45-10, earlier this season – gobbled up 737 yards, with 507 coming through the air and 230 on the ground. Boise State did whatever it wanted against the Warriors, and the Warriors did whatever they wanted against the Vandals. That’s a pretty grim set of facts for Idaho partisans to contemplate.

It only gets worse.

Idaho allowed 844 yards to Nevada last weekend, making Boise State’s output against Hawaii appear modest by comparison. What’s even more alarming for the Vandals is that they gave up those yards in relatively equal measure. Nevada did churn out 453 rushing yards – that’s the Wolf Pack’s specialty – but the boys from Reno also rolled up 391 passing yards. Just imagine what Boise State could do against Idaho’s toothless defense.

As long as the Broncos don’t commit turnovers or penalties, they should post a ton of points in this game and win easily.

Football Odds Handicapping: What Idaho Has To Do To Win

This game is Idaho’s season for multiple reasons. Playing at home, the Vandals will spill the tank and do everything possible to win this one game. Such is life in a rivalry game, and such is life when you’re the huge target the Broncos are. Boise State is always the focus for every other team in the WAC, so as the Broncos play their final month of games in this particular conference, they know they’re going to receive a rival’s very best shot. When one realizes that 41-point and 36-point underdogs have won college football games in recent years (Stanford against USC in 2007, Syracuse against Louisville in 2007), Idaho’s prospects should not be completely dismissed.

Idaho has to do two things: Hit the big play on offense and win third down on defense. Idaho needs to score direct touchdowns on long plays, because Boise State’s defense will force field goals in the red zone. On the other side of the ball, Idaho must stop a Boise team that converted a majority of its third downs last week against Hawaii. You can beat Boise by stopping third-and-two, but most defenses aren’t good enough to do just that.

Football Odds Handicapping: Outlook & Pick

Boise State will eventually win the game by a comfortable margin, but Idaho will play very hard in the first half and make things at least a little uncomfortable for Boise – enough, at any rate, to get under the number and lose by only 30 points instead of 40 or more.

Football Odds Pick: Idaho +34.5