Football Odds – Auburn # 1 in the BCS

Those who follow the football odds know that the Auburn Tigers have had a dream season; they are #1 in the BCS standings, and their quarterback, Cameron Newton, may be the front-runner to win the Heisman Trophy, and those have to be classified as two surprising developments. On Saturday Auburn tries to stay undefeated as it travels to play the Ole Miss Rebels, in SEC action that kicks off at 6 PM ET at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (artificial turf) in Oxford, MS. Auburn has been established as a seven-point favorite in the football odds for this game.

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Auburn Tigers (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) at Ole Miss Rebels (3-4 SU, 3-3 ATS)
Live at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Oxford, MS
Saturday, October 30 –  6 PM ET
TV:  ESPN2

Football Odds:
Auburn -7
Ole Miss +7
Total  60.5

Here are some of the trends as they might impact our analysis of the football odds on this game:

·         Auburn has won its last nine games SU
·         Auburn has covered four of its last five games
·         Auburn has covered two of its last 11 road games
·         Auburn has lost seven of its last ten road games SU
·         Auburn has played eight of its last 12 road games UNDER the total
·         Ole Miss has won 17 of its last 25 games SU
·         Ole Miss has won eleven of its last 14 home games SU

Key stats for Auburn — The Tigers are fourth in the nation in rushing offense, rolling up 303 yards a game, and among running backs, Michael Dyer has gained 68 yards a contest, while Onterio McCalebb has had 57. So it’s not all about Cam Newton. However, it is indeed the Auburn quarterback who makes the Tigers such a big threat in the football odds. He has gained more rushing yards than everyone but Michigan’s Denard Robinson, and he is third nationally in passing efficiency, completing 65% of his passes. He runs the Auburn option to near-perfection, and that is why the team is eleventh in the nation in scoring. You’ve got to give them credit also for the way they’ve defended the run, allowing about three yards a carry, although the secondary, which has yielded 65% completions, needs some work.

Key stats for Ole Miss — The Rebels can run the ball, moving it on the ground to the tune of 211 yards a game, and they have averaged 31.4 points. They have only permitted seven quarterback sacks, but are also 101st in scoring defense (32 ppg). Some special teams units have not been big for them statistically; the Rebels are 98th in kickoff returns and 115th in net punting, but they also have the nation’s eleventh-ranked punter in Tyler Campbell. Jeremiah Masoli has 400 yards rushing and 1260 yards passing, averaging 7.4 yards an attempt.

Here are some of the head-to-head trends that may influence the football odds on this game:

·         Auburn has won five of the last six meetings SU
·         Auburn has won six of the last seven meetings SU as the home team

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Auburn has played twice on the road, and they won by a field goal in each of them. The win against Mississippi State, which has won its way into the top 20, holds up pretty good now, but the win at Kentucky was a little more uncomfortable than expected. Last week the War Eagle took advantage of what was substandard quarterbacking by a not ready-for-prime time Jordan Jefferson and were aided by an injury to Jarrett Lee, but here they will be facing Jeremiah Masoli, the starting QB for Oregon (now #1 in the polls) last year, and who is getting more and more comfortable in the Ole Miss offense after his transfer was made official. Masoli was stymied a but Alabama a couple of weeks ago but threw for 327 yards last Saturday against Arkansas. Oddly, that was the only game in the last four where the Rebels didn’t cover in the football odds.

Auburn is one of those teams where you figure their bubble is going to burst at any moment. Is Cam Newton as good as those numbers look? Well, almost. Remember that although the SEC slate is a tough test, the game with Alabama hasn’t come, and there wasn’t an athletic Florida defense to deal with. Newton wasn’t even guaranteed of anything at Auburn going into fall practice. We don’t want to split hairs, but we can tell you that if the defense isn’t as good as IT’S numbers have shown, Masoli could be in a position to exploit it. Ole Miss isn’t likely to be a pushover to run against, and in practice, their current QB can probably show them how the opposing QB intends to get it done. This may be a lot of points for Auburn to lay; in the football odds, we’re on the "take" with Ole Miss.

JAY’S PLAY:  OLE MISS +7 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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