Football Betting – Thanksgiving NFL Picks

Ok, between making the Thanksgiving dinner, the usual parade, and the friends there still is some NFL betting to do, but you should do it with the advice of the professionals.  Here are my Thanksgiving NFL Picks:

New England (8-2, Road: 3-2) 12:30 pm EST

Detroit (2-8, Home: 2-2) CBS

Is there a better tradition on Thanksgiving than betting against the Detroit Lions? Well, this year, they host the best team in the league because the Pats are playing solid football despite not having great personnel on their roster.

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The Lions are the best team against the NFL spread, but recently they haven’t bee able to keep up against good teams. However, I don’t expect them to bounce back against a near-perfect Tom Brady.

The Pats are 9-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 3-4 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest AND 0-1 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Lions are 4-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 5-2 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest, 4-0 ATS in home games.

New England Patriots -7
Detroit Lions +7

O/U 50.5

My pick: take the Lions with the points plus the OVER.

New Orleans (7-3, Road: 3-1) 4:15 pm EST

Dallas (3-7, Home: 1-4)  FOX

This is probably the biggest game of the day, as before the season started everybody looked at these two as Super Bowl contenders. Well, the Cowboys are not there anymore, but the Saints remain as a pretty good one pick.

Dallas is a team that actually got a second breath after letting Wade Phillips go, and they are 2-0 with Jason Garrett as the head coach, but in the end, the better team should win the game and that’s the Saints.

New Orleans is 0-6 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play, 12-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 6-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Dallas is 1-5 ATS in games played on turf, 2-5 ATS against conference opponents but 6-0 ATS against NFC South division opponents over the last three years.

New Orleans Saints -3.5
Dallas Cowboys +3.5

O/U 50.5

My pick: take the Saints to cover.

Cincinnati (2-8, Road: 1-4) 8:20 pm EST

NY Jets (8-2, Home: 3-2) NFL Net

The Bengals are a complete mess, as they don’t trust each other. I know you are laughing, NFL betting fans, as Ochocinco keeps blaming Palmer despite that Terrell Owens is satisfied with the QB. On the other hand, the Jets are arguably the best team in the league and won’t drop one at home against a bad team like the Bengals.

Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS vs. AFC East, 10-22 ATS against conference opponents and 3-6 ATS in weeks 10 through 13. The Jets are 5-2 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest and 5-2 ATS against conference opponents.

Cincinnati Bengals +8.5
NY Jets -8.5

O/U 44

My pick: Take the Jets to cover.

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