Football Betting Advice – West Virginia Lay Double Digits to South Florida

When we give our football betting advice in the Big East, we know we better be right on the money because of the unpredictability in the conference, so when the West Virginia Mountaineers lay double digits to the South Florida Bulls on Thursday, you know that you have to take along look at the dog.

The game begins at 7:30 PM ET at Milan Puskar Stadium (artificial turf) in Morgantown, WV. In the college football lines, West Virginia is the 10.5-point favorite. It is based on that line that we will render our football betting advice.

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South Florida Bulls (3-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) at West Virginia Mountaineers (4-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)

Live at Milan Puskar Stadium

Morgantown, WV

Thursday, October 14 — 7:30 PM ET

TV: ESPN

College Football Lines:

West Virginia -10.5

South Florida +10.5

Here are some of the trends as they might impact our football betting advice on this game:

• South Florida has four of its last six games SU
• South Florida has lost four of its last five road games SU
• South Florida has played four of its last five road games OVER the total
• West Virginia has won four of its last five games SU
• West Virginia has won eleven of its last 12 home games SU

Key stats for South Florida — The Bulls rank 18th in the country in pass efficiency defense. They have picked off seven passes on the season. However, this is not a dynamic passing offense with BJ Daniels at the controls. Daniels is a nimble quarterback, yet he has only 186 net yards rushing.

He has also been sacked eleven times. Furthermore, he has only 52% completions and has been intercepted seven times in 95 attempts. South Florida has scored wins over Stony Brook and Sun Belt Conference members Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic. Otherwise, the Bulls have scored a total of 23 points in losses to Florida and Syracuse.

Key stats for West Virginia (for purposes of our football betting advice) — The Mountaineers are tough against the run, allowing just 2.7 yards a carry and 87 yards a game. They’re allowing 6.2 yards per pass attempt, and rank 19th in the nation by allowing only 168 passing yards per game.

Noel Devine has been somewhat disappointing; once considered a Heisman candidate, he has rushed for 475 yards and 5.3 yards a carry, but it isn’t the monster contribution some had expected. He did score on touchdown runs of 48 and 28 yards in the 49-10 rout of UNLV last week.

Geno Smith has been surprisingly good at quarterback, completing 66.4% of his throws with 12 TD’s and only two interceptions.

Here are some of the head-to-head football trends that may influence our football betting advice on this game:

• South Florida has covered four of the last five meetings
• Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total

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South Florida has obviously done a commendable job of recruiting, when you consider it has to compete with the likes of the "Big Three" in the Sunshine State, and there have been some outstanding performers to come from this defense. However, I don’t know how convinced I am that they can beat this level of opposition right now.

They have underperformed against Florida and Syracuse, and they were held to less than 300 yards against the likes of Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic. West Virginia more than holds its own on the defensive end, and Smith has a decided edge over Daniels in the passing department. If Noel Devine can show any kind of form, this is a difficult nut for USF to crack.

West Virginia garnered only 118 rushing yards in 35 attempts in last year’s meeting, but we’re convinced they can do better this time around with some balance. Our football betting advice is to move with revenge-minded West Virginia over one-dimensional South Florida, laying 10.5 points in the college football lines.

JAY’S PLAY: WEST VIRGINIA -10.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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