Football Betting Advice – Central Florida vs North Carolina State

Those seeking football betting advice have no doubt noticed that the Central Florida Knights have made progress in George O’Leary’s tenure, but now Central Florida would like to get a return trip to the post-season, something they have not done back-to-back during coach George O’Leary’s tenure, and on Saturday they will line up against the Wolfpack of North Carolina State at Bright House Networks Stadium (natural turf) in Orlando, with the kickoff scheduled for 7:30 PM ET. In the college football odds, Central Florida is favored by 3.5 points, with the total posted at 50.5 points. Our football betting advice for this game will be based on those numbers.

North Carolina State Wolfpack (1-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) at Central Florida Knights (1-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

Live at Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando

Saturday, September 11 — 7:30 PM ET

TV: CBSC

College Football Odds:

UCF -3.5

N.C. State +3.5

Total: 50.5

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North Carolina State put together a four-game winning streak to get bowl-eligible in 2008, and go to the PapaJohns.com Bowl, where it lost to Rutgers. If we gave their side in our football betting advice in every game that year, we would have been right tn of 12 times. The Wolfpack regressed last year, and that was primarily because it went from +8 to minus-11 in the turnover figures, and even a win over nationally-ranked North Carolina in the season-ending grudge game did not get them to the magic six-win mark.

Central Florida skated through its opening game against FCS entry South Dakota, getting 107 yards from Jonathan Davis. Rob Calabrese, who was just 54% accurate last season, competed 12 out of 15 in the game, and he led an attack that produced 472 yards. UCF has George O’Leary (yes, THAT George O’Leary) at the helm for a seventh year, and though they have gone to three bowls during his reign, including last year’s St. Petersburg Bowl (that’s in Florida, not Russia), they have not had recent success against better opponents, although the fact that they beat N.C. State the last time they met is something not lost on us at we render our football betting advice.

Here are some of the college football betting trends as they impact the college football odds on this game:

• NC State has lost six of its last nine games SU
• NC State is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five road games
• NC State has lost eight of its last ten road games SU
• NC State has played four of its last six road games OVER the total
• Central Florida has won and covered four of its last five games
• Central Florida has played its last four games OVER the total
• Central Florida has won seven of its last eight home games SU

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You just knew that Russell Wilson was not going to stay near-perfect for very long. The quarterback, who is now entering his junior year, threw only one interception in a very surprising freshman season, but last year he had eleven pickoffs to go with his 31 TD passes. Still, that’s a great ratio, and there is an argument that Wilson fits in right behind the top trio of Christian Ponder, Jacory Harris and Joshua Nesbitt among ACC signal-callers. There is a great balance in his receiving corps, and as big-play threats go, they don’t get much bigger than Owen Spencer, who averaged 25.5 yards a catch last year, which was best in the nation. The problem here is that the entire defensive line has had to be replaced, and those coming back to the program had only eight career starts between them prior to last week’s exhibition win against Western Carolina (the way the NCAA works, "exhibition" wins actually count on your record, though thankfully the BCS people don’t put any weight on it).

Central Florida returns a defense that night force Wilson to the air. The Knights allowed only 2.6 yards per carry, but part of our football betting advice has to be to "advise" you that O’Leary has not yet put together back-to-back winning seasons at UCF. If he doesn’t do it this season, it won’t be because he hasn’t brought back enough starters. The Knights have seven returnees on defense, and that team was not only #4 in the nation against the run, but recorded 38 sacks. That has the potential to make it tough on Wilson, for sure. The last time these teams met, as mentioned, UCF won, but we’re not sure we have all that much confidence in Calabrese just yet, and the presence here of thousand-yard rusher Brynn Harvey (out with a knee injury) would have been much appreciated. Our football betting advice in this contest is to grab the points with N.C. State s ACC meets Conference USA.

JAY’S PLAY: N.C. STATE +3.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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