Football Betting Advice – Air Force Takes Triple Option

Our football betting advice in Mountain West Conference action on Saturday is certainly going to be influenced by the fact that Air Force runs one of the most efficient offenses in the country, and on Saturday the Falcons, who are now rated #23 in the nation, take their option attack to southern California to take on the San Diego State Aztecs, in MWC action that is slated to get underway at 8 PM ET at Qualcomm Stadium (natural turf) in San Diego.

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In the college football lines for this game, Air Force is a 1.5-point favorite, with the total on the game posted at 53.5 points. The football betting advice we give you will be based on those pointspread numbers.

Air Force Falcons (5-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) at San Diego State Aztecs (3-2 SU, 3-1 ATS)

Live at Qualcomm Stadium

San Diego, CA

Saturday, October 16 –  8 PM ET

TV:  CBS College Sports

College Football Lines:

Air Force -1.5

San Diego State +1.5

Here are some of the trends as they might impact our football betting advice on this game:

• Air Force has won six of its last seven games SU
• Air Force has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
• San Diego State has lost 17 of its last 25 games SU
• San Diego State has won six of its last nine home games SU

Key stats for Air Force — The Falcons rank right at the top of the NCAA statistical ranking for rushing offense, averaging almost 353 yards a game. Of course, they’re not going to have a lot of passing yards as a result, but QB Tim Jefferson went five of nine for 160 yards against Colorado State last week. The Air Force defense has been particularly strong, rated seventh in the country against the pass and 35th overall. Johnathan Warzeka leads the nation in kickoff returns, averaging almost 37 yards a pop.

Key stats for San Diego State — The Aztecs are ninth in the country in pass efficiency defense, which in the context of giving out our football betting advice, doesn’t necessarily impact us here. but they have been relatively solid against the run, surrendering just 3.5 yards per carry. San Diego State has allowed less than 16 points a game. They are tenth in the nation in net punting, and have allowed their quarterback, Ryan Lindley, to be sacked only twice. Leading rusher Ronnie Hillman has 594 yards and eight touchdowns.

Here are some of the head-to-head trends that may influence our football betting prediction on this game:

• Air Force has won four of the last five meetings SU
• San Diego State has covered four of the last six meetings

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Hillman may have 594 yards, but that might be somewhat deceiving in that 228 of those yards came in one game against Missouri. That was an impressive performance where the Aztecs stayed within three points at Columbia, and the next week they blew out a Utah State team that was very banged up. Last week SDSU only turned the ball over once, but were dominated on the stats sheet by a BYU squad that is decidedly weaker than recent editions but had 271 rushing yards nonetheless. SDSU got no running game going, and held the ball for only FIFTEEN minutes.

So what’s our football betting advice here? Well, Hillman needs to become a very big factor in a very big hurry for San Diego State, or Air Force will put together a number of time-consuming drives. It certainly is to SDSU’s benefit that defensive coordinator Rocky Long has had a lot of experience preparing defenses for the Air Force option while he was the head coach at New Mexico, and some of that was favorable. But there are more variations now than there used to be, and the feeling here is that it will be the San Diego State offense that will have more of a problem gathering momentum. Between Asher Clark (548 rushing yards), Jared Tew (524) and Jefferson (376), there are going to be too many people for the Aztecs to worry about. We really have no other choice in our football betting advice than to recommend the more solid Air Force Falcons, reasonably priced as a1.5-point favorite in the college football lines.

JAY’S PLAY:  AIR FORCE -1.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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