Football Betting Advice – Toledo vs Boise State

Those seeking college football betting advice have to wonder what Boise State can do to gain ground in the national polls, after being dropped in the wake of a 59-0 drubbing of New Mexico State last time out. On Saturday the Broncos take to the field again, as they tackle the Toledo Rockets of the Mid-American Conference in a game scheduled to begin at 8 PM ET at Bronco Stadium (artificial turf), known as the "Blue Carpet." As expected, the numbers are big: Boise State is a 39-point favorite in the college football lines, and that is the basis upon which we will issue our football betting advice for this game.

Toledo Rockets (3-2 SU & ATS) at Boise State Broncos (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Live at Bronco Stadium
Boise, ID
Saturday, October 9 –  8 PM ET
TV:  ESPN Game Plan

College Football Lines:
Boise State -39
Toledo +39
Total  58

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Key stats for Toledo — The Rockets rank just 114th in total offense, chalking up 283 yards a game. They also rank 13th in rushing defense, allowing about 2.9 yards an attempt. Eric Page is tenth in the country in kickoff returns. Toledo has forced 16 turnovers, which is second most in the country.

Key stats for Boise State — Our general football betting advice is to not sell BSU short. The Broncos have played two teams who were in the national rankings at the time they’ve played them. So it’s not an unimpressive thing that they are ranked fourth nationally in total offense AND first in total defense. Boise State has given up just 223.5 yards a game, and have shut down opposition running games to the tune of 2.1 yards a carry. Quarterback Kellen Moore, who’s completed 66% of his passes and thrown only one interception, has been sacked only once.

Here are some of the trends as they impact our football betting advice on this game:

• Toledo has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
• Toledo has lost 17 of its last 25 road games SU
• Toledo has played six of its last nine road games OVER the total
• Boise State has won its last 18 games SU
• Boise State has played seven of its last ten games OVER the total

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The big crisis in Boise this week, as least among the fans of the Broncos, has been the fact that despite running up a 59-0 score against New Mexico State, and outgaining the Aggies 608-208, they actually went from third to fourth in the polls. How dare those voters not be impressed with a gratuitous blowout! Actually, I’m not sure the voters were looking for a 73-0 score, but they may have been sending a message that running it up for the sake of running it up is going to be rejected. Or it could have been that Oregon was impressive enough in their win over Stanford that they deserve to leapfrog.

In this atmosphere, where teams craving recognition like Boise State are generally poll-conscious, these are the kinds of things that affect the football betting advice we give, because of the big numbers that the college football linemakers have put out there.

Toledo has already won three games on the road this season, but we have to admit that the Rockets disappointed us greatly last week when returning to the Glass Bowl, as a second-half rally fell short in a 20-15 loss to Wyoming. It was not a banner day for either Terrance Owens or Austin Dantin, who combined to complete just 14 of 35 passes. Neither guy is a dynamic passer, and you’ve got to wonder how either of these relatively inexperienced passers is going to fare on the Blue Carpet. 

Toledo has forced all those turnovers, as we mentioned. So how are they going to get any off of Kellen Moore? The answer is, they probably won’t. The main question that governs our football betting advice here is whether Boise will be more or less motivated to make that winning margin as big as possible. I’d say it’s in their nature by now to roll it up if they can. That’s how they’ve gotten the attention of a lot of people. Toledo certainly isn’t going to be able to keep pace with its offense, and if they couldn’t rise to the occasion at home last week, in a homecoming game mind you; if they let themselves get well behind so early against Wyoming, what will Boise State do to them? Our football betting advice is to lay the points, but don’t get crazy with it.

JAY’S PLAY:  BOISE STATE -39 *
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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