Football Betting Advice – Oregon State Out To Prove Themselves

People who are looking for football betting advice want to know whether a loss to a top five team has deflated Oregon State, and they will be trying to demonstrate on Saturday that it didn’t. The Beavers will play host to the Louisville Cardinals, in college football action that will get underway at 5:3-0 PM ET at Reser Stadium (artificial turf) in Corvallis, OR. In the college football odds, Oregon State is listed as a 19.5-point favorite, with the total on the game posted at 53.5. Those are the numbers by which we will be giving out our football betting advice.

Louisville Cardinals (1-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) at Oregon State Beavers (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS)

Live at Reser Stadium
Corvallis, OR
Saturday, September 18 — 5:30 PM ET
TV: Fox Sports Northwest

College Football Odds:
Oregon State -19.5
Louisville  +19.5
Total 53.5

The football betting advice from most people is to avoid the Cardinals. The Louisville program has had to rebuild itself and thus far we can’t conclude that Adam Froman is up to the task. The senior completed just 14 of 29 passes in the opener against Kentucky, and you can’t say that the performance last week against Eastern Kentucky was anything encouraging. Louisville exploded for 23 points in the second quarter but went scoreless otherwise. They converted two of ten third down conversions, and hurt themselves with penalties. New head coach Charlie Strong wants to make this a more defensive team, and the evidence suggests that they still have some ground to cover in that regard. 

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Here are some of the trends as they impact our NCAA expert pick on this game:

• Louisville has lost 14 of its last 19 games SU
• Louisville has covered three of its last nine games
• Louisville has lost its last nine road games SU
• Oregon State has won 15 of its last 22 games SU
• Oregon State has played four of its last five games OVER the total
• Oregon State has covered two of its last six home games
• Oregon State has won 20 of its last 25 home games SU
• Oregon State has played four of its last five home games OVER the total

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Ryan Katz had limited playing time as a freshman, seeing most of his action against the weakest part of OSU’s schedule – games with Washington State and Portland State. He misfired a lot in the opening 30-21 loss against #4 TCU, hitting on only nine of his 25 passes, but what Mike Riley was most concerned about was that he avoided killer mistakes, and he came away without an interception. Riley thinks that if he can do that against this kind of opponent, the Beavers will better be able to take advantage of it.

Jacquizz Rodgers is priced at +3000 in the college betting odds to win the Heisman Trophy, and he’s going to try to improve upon the 75 yards on 18 carries he got against TCU. I don’t know if this math should have a place in our football betting advice, but OSU has won 19 of the last 21 games where they have had a 100-yard rusher, and they have lost their last three games – the finale against Oregon, the Las Vegas Bowl against BYU and the TCU game – and in none of those games did the "Quizz" hit the 100-yard mark. However, he’s had 460 yards in the last three games he’s played at Reser Stadium.

Our football betting advice considers that Louisville may have on way to go on offense, and that’s with running back Bilal Powell, who’s gotten off to a good start. But even though we saw OSU give up 278 yards on the ground against CU, we also recognize that they have not allowed more than 3.8 yards a carry in any of the last seven seasons. Don’t make any mistake; this team can play a little, and they have the guys in this game who can make plays (add James Rodgers, Jacquizz’s brother, to that list). They’ll be more ready than usual coming off a loss with a week off in between. The only thing that worries us is that they are 7-19 ATS in the month of September over the last seven years. Our football betting advice for Saturday is to lay the points with Oregon State.

JAY’S PLAY:  OREGON STATE -19.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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