Football Betting Advice – Bowling Green vs Tulsa

Our football betting advice on Saturday concerns the Bowling Green Falcons, who were about as wide-open as anyone could get last year, but have to replace two huge guns – a productive quarterback and the leading receiver in the country. They will take on the Golden Hurricane of Tulsa, which lost a genuine barn burner last week and wants some redemption. This game between Mid-American Conference and Conference USA squads will kick off at 7 PM ET at Chapman Stadium (artificial turf) in Tulsa. In the football betting odds, Tulsa is laying 17 points, with a posted over-under of 62 points. We are going to determine our football betting advice based on those numbers.

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Bowling Green Falcons (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (0-1 SU & ATS)

Live at Chapman Stadium, Tulsa

Saturday, September 11 — 7 PM ET

TV: None

Football Betting Odds:

Tulsa -17

Bowling Green +17

Total: 62

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Bowling Green made it very exciting in its first game of the season against Troy, and that nay alter our football betting advice for this game. They took a 24-17 lead early in the third quarter on a Eugene Cooper punt return, and lost it on a field goal with just seconds remaining. Nevertheless, they got the cover in the football betting odds, as they were fetching 14 points. The Falcons have had a lot to replace; not only did they lose quarterback Tyler Sheehan, who threw for 27 touchdown passes last year, they also sustained the departure of wide receiver Freddie Barnes, who caught an other-worldly 155 passes from him. Redshirt freshman Matt Schilz completed 22 of 43, and the main target appears to be Kamar Jordan (111 yards on nine receptions).

Here are some of the NCAAF betting trends as they impact our football betting advice on this game:

• Bowling Green is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games
• Bowling Green has won four of its last six games SU
• Bowling Green has played four of its last six games OVER the total
• Bowling Green is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five road games
• Bowling Green has won four of its last six road games SU
• Bowling Green has played four of its last six road games OVER the total
• Tulsa has covered one of its last seven games
• Tulsa has lost seven of its last eight games SU
• Tulsa has played its last five games OVER the total
• Tulsa has won 14 of its last 19 home games SU
• Tulsa has lost four of its last five home games SU

Let’s consider a couple of things here for a moment, in the way of football betting advice. Bowling Green gave up 475 yards to Troy last week, and gave up 4.8 yards a rush, which kind of nullified the fact that Troy had 129 yards in penalties. This is a defense that could not get off the field last year, allowing 5.4 yards a carry, and you wonder whether things could get worse in 2010. On the other hand, Troy is a team that could win the Sun Belt, so this may have been a better performance than expected.

Tulsa faced a team that lost more starters than any other team in the country (East Carolina), and not only surrendered 538 yards, but also 27 points in the fourth quarter to lose in heart-breaking fashion. Clearly their defense has a ways to go as well. When rendering our football betting advice, we also must consider that Bowling Green obviously has an efficient offensive scheme, a quarterback in Schilz who has been recruited by bigger schools in bigger conferences (was originally signed with Kansas State) and some proficiency on the road, covering 12 of their last 15 in the football betting odds. There are about fifteen seniors on the two-deep who also remember a humiliating 63-7 loss to Tulsa in the 2007 GMAC Bowl. This is a lot of points for them to get. Our football betting advice is to take those points with Bowling Green.

JAY’S PLAY: BOWLING GREEN +17 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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