Football Betting Advice – Auburn vs Kentucky

Many who like to give college football betting advice are ready to ride the bandwagon of the Auburn Tigers, who look pretty good so far, with a #8 national ranking, and this high-flying Auburn squad looks to stay undefeated this Saturday when it faces the Kentucky Wildcats in SEC action that begins at 7:30 PM ET at Commonwealth Stadium (natural turf) in Lexington, KY. In the college football lines, Auburn is a 6.5-point favorite, with the over-under posted at 57.5 points. These numbers are what we will base our football betting advice on.

Auburn Tigers (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) at Kentucky Wildcats (3-2 SU & ATS)
Live at Commonwealth Stadium
Lexington, KY
Saturday, October 9 –  7:30 PM ET
TV:  ESPN2

College Football Lines:
Auburn -6.5
Kentucky +6.5
Over-Under  57.5

Key stats for Auburn — The Tigers have been chewing up chunks of yardage on the ground, ranking eighth in the country in rushing offense. In addition to that, however, Auburn is first in pass efficiency, and Cam Newton, specifically, is the second highest-rated quarterback in the nation. The Florida transfer has 12 touchdown passes and is averaging 10.7 yards an attempt, which is best in the country, and that has to affect anyone’s football betting advice on this game. Newton, by the way, has also rushed for 474 yards, and that projects to over a thousand yards for the season. He’s with an undefeated team in a conference that has produced the last four national champions. why isn’t he being mentioned prominently in association with the Heisman Trophy?

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Key stats for Kentucky — The Wildcats rank #8 in the country in pass defense, allowing 142 yards a game. They also have held opponents to 51.3% completions. The offensive line has been a bright spot, enabling a running game that has averaged 5.4 yards a carry and permitting only two sacks. Derrick Locke is sixth in the "All-Purpose" category, producing 181 yards a contest. 

Here are some of the trends as they may impact our football betting advice on this game:

• Auburn has won its last six games SU
• Auburn has covered two of its last ten road games
• Auburn has lost seven of its last nine road games SU
• Auburn has played eight of its last eleven road games UNDER the total
• Kentucky has played four of its last five games OVER the total
• Kentucky has won four of its last six home games SU

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Kentucky dropped all three of its chances as a home underdog last season, but there may be reason to believe they can reverse that in this game. Mike Hartline, who has really improved his accuracy this year (64%), can get time to throw, and make no mistake that he had weapons. Aside from Locke, Randall Cobb is also someone who can beat you in a number of different ways. Both Cobb and Locke topped 100 yards rushing in last year’s meeting. For purposes of constructing our football betting advice, I’d be interested to see what happens with an Auburn team that has not been able to pull away form any credible opposition (no, Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe don’t fall into that category).

Kentucky was burned and embarrassed a couple of weeks ago when Trey Burton of Florida scored six TD’s against them, and then was shell-shocked enough to lose to Ole Miss last week. Newton (not a "wildcat" guy like Burton) may have a ways to go before you can put him up there with the top Heisman contenders (thus answering the question we asked above), as he posted his worst numbers of the season when Auburn stepped out onto the road (to play Mississippi State). Our football betting advice is to grab the points with a Kentucky team that pulled off a straight-up dog upset last year over Auburn.  

JAY’S PLAY:  KENTUCKY +6.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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