Football Betting – Winless Bills Laying Points to Lions

Those who follow football betting may be a little surprised that the winless Buffalo Bills would be laying points this Sunday, but that is just what they are doing against the Detroit Lions, who would seem a little further along in the rebuilding process. However, the Lions will be without their quarterback this week, while the Bills seem to have found theirs, at least for the time being. Kickoff is set for 1 PM ET at Ralph Wilson Stadium (artificial turf) in Orchard Park, NY. The Bills, at 0-8, are the three-point favorites in the football betting odds, with a total posted at 44 points.

Detroit Lions (2-6 SU, 7-1 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (0-8 SU, 3-4-1 ATS)

Live at Ralph Wilson Stadium
Orchard Park, NY
Sunday, November 14 — 1 PM ET
TV: FOX

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Football Betting Odds:

Buffalo -3
Detroit +3
Total 44

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Here are some of the NFL trends as they impact sports betting on this game:

• Detroit has played its last five games OVER the total
• Detroit has lost 12 of its last 14 games SU
• Detroit has played 16 of its last 24 road games OVER the total
• Detroit has lost its last 24 road games SU
• Buffalo has played four of its last six games OVER the total
• Buffalo has played ten of its last 15 home games UNDER the total
• Buffalo has lost six of its last seven home games SU
• Buffalo is 1-4-2 ATS in its last seven home games

If there was a classic go-against vs. go-against matchup on the surface, this would be it. The Lions have dropped 24 straight road games, while the Bills find themselves in the rather unusual and precarious position of being favored despite not having won a game this year for new coach Chan Gailey. Of course, the performances of both teams have been a little better than that. The Lions, for example, have covered seven of the eight games they’ve played in the football betting odds. The Bills have been very competitive in each of the last three games they have played since the bye week, losing each of them by just a field goal (the first two, against Baltimore and Kansas City, going to overtime). Oddly, this is a game featuring the league’s top two teams at scoring TD’s in the red zone (combining for 70%).

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been serviceable in the starting quarterback role for the Bills. he has completed 60% of his passes and has a TD-INT ratio (13-7) that normally would not be expected from the field leader of an 0-8 team. Of course, he is not top-shelf, so he will occasionally make the wring mistake at the wrong time, as he did last week when tossing two interceptions against Chicago in the game that was played at Toronto. One of those INT’s led to the winning TD by the Bears.

There has always been a connection of sorts between these two franchises, because Ralph Wilson, owner of the Bills, was a part-owner of the Lions prior to the American Football League’s formation. Wilson concedes that it is going to take time for his team to become competitive, so Chan Gailey isn’t necessarily on the hot seat.

Here are the head-to-head trends as they involve the football betting odds on this game:

• Detroit has covered four of the last five meetings
• Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total

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Buffalo had its quarterback transition many weeks ago, when Fitzpatrick finally took over fro the ineffective Trent Edwards, who was later cut and signed with Jacksonville. The Lions have had to change a couple of times because of injury. Matthew Stafford, the #1 draft choice last year, started the season, got injured, was replaced by Shaun Hill, then came back against Washington and led the team to a win. He has now hurt his shoulder again, could be out for the season, and Hill, who has a broken left forearm, is back in the lineup.

This might seem a golden opportunity for the Bills to get a first win. But a few of these games along the way have looked like that. Could they have had a better setup last week than a Bears’ team that had converted just five of its last 50 on third down and protected their quarterback with the least proficiency of any team in the league? let’s not forget a couple of things: the Bills’ defense has allowed 17 touchdown passes and made ONE interception on the season, and the Lions’; offense functioned rather well with Hill at quarterback (61%, nine TD’s). They covered almost every game in the football betting line with him at the helm. Detroit has the best offensive weapon on the field in Calvin Johnson (39 catches, eight TD’s, and who Gailey recruited to Georgia Tech), and the better defense (Buffalo has allowed a point for every 12.8 yards gained by the opponent). Plus, they signed kicker Dave Rayner, which means Ndamukong Suh doesn’t have to kick extra points anymore. I think Detroit is the team most likely
to make a breakthrough here, and we’ll take the points with the Lions, the three-point underdog in the football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: DETROIT +3 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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