Football Betting – Defending Champions Rounding Into Form

Football betting fans know that the New Orleans Saints like to think they are rounding into form at the right time as they defend their Super Bowl title. On Sunday the world champions find themselves in the "ring" with a Baltimore Ravens team that barely escaped on Monday night against Houston. The game kicks off at 1 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium (artificial turf) in Baltimore. In the football betting odds, the Ravens are a 1.5-point favorite, with the over-under posted at 43.5 points.

New Orleans Saints (10-3 SU, 5-8 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (9-4 SU, 6-6-1 ATS)
Live at M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, MD
Sunday, December 19 — 1 PM ET
TV:  FOX

Football Betting Odds:
Baltimore  -1.5
New Orleans  +1.5
Total  43.5

Here are some of the trends as they impact our NFL prediction on this game:

·         New Orleans has covered seven of its last 21 games
·         New Orleans has won its last six games SU
·         New Orleans has covered four of its last six games
·         New Orleans has won 14 of its last 16 road games SU
·         New Orleans has covered three of its last ten road games
·         New Orleans has played four of its last six road games OVER the total
·         Baltimore has won eight of its last eleven games SU
·         Baltimore has won eight of its last nine games SU
·         Baltimore has covered two of its last six home games

The Baltimore Ravens (who are even at 6-6-1 ATS in football betting) are just a game behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in the race to win the AFC North title. With their 9-4 record, Baltimore is well=positioned to capture one of the wild card slots, because only one other team that is not leading a division has a record that good, and that is the New York Jets, who were beaten by the Ravens at the beginning of the season. Everyone else who would be contending right now is at least two games back.

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The Saints (who have covered just five games in football betting this year) are not in a bad situation. They are also a game in back of their division’s leader, the Atlanta Falcons, who play against Seattle this week and are on track to have the NFC’s best record, and the home field advantage that goes with it. They are a game ahead of the other top wild card contender, who would be the New York Giants, and they are a couple of games in front of the Packers and Bucs. So these teams are most likely going to be participating in the post-season.

Here are the head-to-head football betting trends that have a bearing on this game:

·         Baltimore has won four of the last five meetings SU
·         Four of the last five meetings in Baltimore have gone UNDER the total
·         Baltimore has won four of the last six meetings SU as the home team

The Saints suffered from the same pointspread affliction a lot of defending Super Bowl champs do at the outset of a season, in that they were overpriced in football betting, and they were 0-5 ATS in their first five games. At the same time, they were also not in sync on offense, as they averaged just below 20 points a game in that five-game period. However, they’ve scored 30 points or more in each of their last five, although we issue a disclaimer by saying that all of this has come against teams with records below .500.

Still, we can’t ignore the fact that Drew Brees has been taking it down the field a little further in recent outings (9.4 yards an attempt over last three) and that if he piles up as much yardage in these final three games as he has in his previous three, he will have 4900 yards on the season, which gets him relatively close to what he did two years ago, when he almost broke Dan Marino’s one-season record. He now has Reggie Bush back, along with Pierre Thomas, and that will help this team is going after a football betting cover. This Baltimore team probably has the better defense, although the Ravens seem to have lost touch with their running game, which has produced just 3.6 yards a carry on the season and 198 yards over the last three weeks.

New Orleans obviously gets a challenge form the Baltimore passing attack, and we acknowledge that Joe Flacco has thrown 11 TD’s with one interceptions and a 107.1 QB rating at home. Interestingly, that has resulted in just a 2-4 ATS record at M&T Bank Stadium. The Saints can brave cold weather, and Baltimore’s endgame lately has left a lot to be desired. We’ll give New Orleans a slight edge in the football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY:  NEW ORLEANS +1.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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