Football Betting – Chargers in Do-Or-Die Situation

Football betting aficionados are well aware that it is pretty much doe-or-die for the San Diego Chargers as they line up on Sunday to play the Cincinnati Bengals. The game is slated to get underway at 4:05 PM ET at Paul Brown Stadium (artificial turf) in Cincinnati.

The football betting odds have the Chargers as the 7.5-point favorites, with the total on the game posted at 44 points.

Football Betting

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San Diego Chargers (8-6 SU & ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-11 SU, 5-9 ATS)

Live at Paul Brown Stadium

Cincinnati. O.

Sunday, December 26 — 4:05 PM ET

TV:  CBS

Football Betting Odds:

San Diego -7.5

Cincinnati  +7.5

Total 44

Here are some of the football betting trends as they impact our NFL prediction on this game:

• San Diego has won six of its last seven games SU
• San Diego has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
• San Diego has lost four of its last six road games SU
• San Diego has won eight of its last 12 road games SU
• San Diego has covered two of its last six road games
• Cincinnati has lost ten of its last 11 games SU
• Cincinnati has covered three of its last 11 games
• Cincinnati has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
• Cincinnati has played four of its last six home games OVER the total
• Cincinnati has lost five of its last six home games SU
• Cincinnati has covered three of its last 11 home games

The Chargers are running of time. That loss they suffered at the hands of the Oakland Raiders three weeks is coming back to haunt them, because instead of being able to win out and win the AFC West, the absolute best they can hope for, unless Kansas City losses to the Titans and Raiders in the season’s final two weeks, is to tie in the division race. If the Chiefs win out, it is over, because the Bolts are not in wild card position. Both the remaining games are on the road, where football bettors know San Diego has won just twice, although they are against weak teams who will most likely be changing coaches after the season is over.

Cincinnati celebrated, one supposes, after breaking a ten-game losing streak with a victory over the Browns last Sunday, which was impressive to the extent that the Bengals were able to establish something on the ground, with 188 yards. Carson Palmer wasn’t intercepted, after having suffered three picks against Pittsburgh, and I suppose there is something encouraging about that for football bettors. Cedric Benson, who went over a thousand yards again, spearheaded the rushing attack, with 150 yards, but how many performances like that does he really have in him?

Here are the head-to-head football betting trends that have a bearing on this game:

• The last five meetings have gone OVER the total
• San Diego has covered four of the last six meetings
• San Diego has won five of the last six meetings SU
• San Diego has won and covered five of the last seven meetings as the road team

For the Chargers, last week was just another chance to put up great numbers. They held San Francisco to 192 yards of offense, which means that over the last two games, they have allowed only 259 yards, including 150 in the air. It’s the same story we tell football bettors all the time – if it wasn’t for that pain-in-the-neck thing called special teams, the Chargers might be leading their division by four or five games. They are #2 in the NFL in offensive yards and #1 in defensive yards allowed. How can a team like that not be in the lead in the second weakest division in football? Well, may be part of it is that they’ve played, on balance, better opposition than division rival Kansas City, but mostly it’s because they have demonstrated the capacity to give away possessions and touchdowns on special teams.

This week, we recognize the fact that the Chargers gain one more yard per play and give up one less yard per play than the Bengals this season. We recognize that Carson Palmer is a little stale, while Phillip Rivers is on his way to the Pro Bowl (29 TD’s, 11 INT’s, 67%). We recognize that Marvin Lewis is on his way out, or should be. We recognize that the Chargers are not a bad bully, chalking up seven of their eight wins by eight points or more. We also recognize that only one of those wins came on the road. So while we will take the Chargers minus the points in football betting, we won’t take them in a big way.

JAY’S PLAY:  SAN DIEGO -7.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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