First Round Showdown – Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks

Warning! Atlanta has NOT been good at home lately! Warning! Danger, Will Robinson! Bad line alert!

Ok, so I’m being overdramatic. It’s Tuesday and I’m jacked for the playoffs! Can you blame me? And this game has big intentions written all over it. The Heat have clinched the fifth-seed in the Eastern Conference. And their opponent is – you guessed it – the Atlanta Hawks.

While I’m a big proponent of the Hawks in general, containing Dwyane Wade has been a huge problem for this team. Wade has averaged 25-5-5 against the Hawks as a one-man army. The Heat are not that great of a road team, but Wade is an unbelievable performer who will put a serious dent in the plans of Atlanta’s betting faithful tonight.

NBA Betting Trends

-Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

-The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games

-Miami is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road

-Miami is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Atlanta

-Atlanta is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games

-Atlanta is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games

-The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games

-Atlanta is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games at home

-Atlanta is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

I like games with a message. And while I think Atlanta shows far more polish than they did last year, they are still not “there” yet. When it comes to Wade and the Heat, they’ve been “there” and done “that”. Even still, Atlanta is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 at home. The line has been creeping point-by-point and it’s finally where the Hawks betting fans don’t want it.

Miami Heat (42-38) vs. Atlanta Hawks (46-34)

Tuesday, April 14th — Philips Arena, Atlanta — 7:00pm EST

NBA Betting Line: Atlanta -8 (191.5)

As strong as Miami is with Wade against Atlanta, this is still a game where Atlanta’s defense shines. The UNDER has been the play in 4-of-5 games this season when Atlanta hosts the Miami Heat. A combination of sputtering team play on Miami’s side, Atlanta’s difficulty in containing true superstars and Wade’s superhuman push for MVP will lead to a Miami victory in the UNDER.

NBA Free Pick: Miami +8 (UNDER)