Final Four Pick – Butler’s Experience a Non-Factor against VCU

I’ll be the first to admit that I’m swept up by VCU as much as the next guy, but there’s something about Butler that may inevitably sway me to take them with my Final Four pick when the time comes this weekend. Something that Butler boasts that Kentucky, VCU and UConn don’t have is relative Final Four experience. Will it make that much of a difference?

The idea is really two fold. On one hand, almost every single player of consequence for Butler remembers the sting of losing to a powerhouse Duke Blue Devils team in Indianapolis last year. The lone exception is freshman Khyle Marshall, the 6-foot-7 swingman who has averaged 7.6 points off the bench in his last three games.

On the other hand, you have to remember that Butler’s appearance in last year’s championship game was a miracle. This year isn’t really any different. Of all teams remaining amongst the lot, Butler has the lowest average point differential in the tournament which is one of the biggest reasons I haven’t leveraged a Final Four pick their way just yet.

The Butler Underdogs (as I like to call them) have only won March Madness games by +3.3 points on average, and their only blowout was a throttling of Wisconsin. Even there they only won by seven-points after leading 33-24 at the half. They should’ve gone for the jugular in that one, but instead took their foot off the gas pedal and nearly let the Badgers back in the game.

You have to be lucky to be good, which explains Butler’s miraculous run in the past two years, which has been nothing short of tremendous. Of course, you have to be good to be lucky and nobody is doubting how solid Butler is. We’re just really wondering if that experience will end up paying off.

The major difference between Butler this year and last year is that Gordon Hayward isn’t on the team anymore. His shooting prowess made Butler much more unpredictable, but it also freed guys up. In the championship game last year, Shelvin Mack had just 12 points and Matt Howard scored 11 points and grabbed 4 rebounds, though he was severely outmatched against Duke’s enormous front court.

Therein lies the rub, as they say. How can you make Butler a reasonable Final Four pick knowing that Mack and Howard weren’t huge when the team had Hayward diluting things defensively?

What makes you think that either can step up without a guy who spread so much of the floor last year and took up so much responsibility?

Even more so, knowing that their point differential is the lowest amongst all remaining squads, do you really think that they have enough luck in the gas tank?

The “been there, done that” attitude that comes with the natural distractions for teams in the Final Four is fine and all, but almost every team has to deal with that. We don’t have too many repeat teams in the Final Four, and as Butler is showing, we don’t even have a whole lot of returning players even if teams return to the doorstep of the championship game.

I’m not saying that Butler’s experience at this level of play won’t matter. It will to some degree, but it’s hardly the sole reason to make Butler a Final Four pick this weekend.