Fiesta Bowl Betting Preview – Boise State vs. TCU (-7.5)

TCU and Boise State Fight for #2 in the BCS

The TCU Horned Frogs and Boise State Broncos take the field for the 2010 Fiesta Bowl on Monday night with an interesting distinction at stake.

Because the Cincinnati Bearcats were mauled by the Florida Gators on January 1st 51 to 24, TCU or Boise State no doubt will jump to #2 in the BCS Rankings with a victory.  After all, either the Horned Frogs or the Broncos is going to end their season with a win in the Fiesta Bowl and an undefeated record.  The only other team in college football that is going to end their season undefeated will be either the Alabama Crimson Tide or the Texas Longhorns in this Thursday’s BCS Championship.

Will it be the Horned Frogs or the Broncos who takes home the Fiesta Bowl trophy?

Below are the college bowl odds for this season’s Fiesta Bowl.

Boise State Broncos                           +7 ½ -110                    O 53 ½ -110

TCU Horned Frogs                           -7 ½ -110                     U 53 ½ -110

TCU Horned Frogs @ Boise State Broncos >> Join to Bet Now

Now let’s check out some of the college bowl prediction trends for this game.

• The Boise State Broncos are 6 and 1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
• The Under is 5 and 1 in the Boise State Broncos last 6 non-conference games.
• The TCU Horned Frogs are 6 and 1 ATS in their last 7 games as the favorite.
• The Under is 6 and 0 in the TCU Horned Frogs last 6 games as a favorite of between 3 ½ to 10 points.

In an undefeated regular season the Boise State Broncos went 8 and 5 against this spread.  This includes covering spreads of 20 or more points 5 times.  But did beating up on lowly San Jose State, Utah State and UC-Davis set the Broncos up to battle one of the top defensive teams in the nation?

Boise State relies heavily on their offense.  If they play bad offensive teams, they can run over them at will but if they face an offensive team that can go mano a mano with them, then the Broncos have issues.

They almost lost to Oregon in Week 1 and failed to cover spreads against Tulsa, Louisiana Tech and Nevada.  Granted, the Broncos won all three of those games, but it’s absolutely fair to ask whether or not Boise State played enough quality defensive opponents to set them up to take on the TCU Horned Frogs.

Here’s the thing:  TCU might be the most complete team in college football.  Their offense is ranked 4th in the nation, as opposed to Boise State’s 6th ranked offense, and it averages 469 yards and 40.7 points per game.

TCU’s defense is ranked #1 in the nation.  How good is the Horned Frog’s defense?  It held BYU, a team that averaged 35.5 points per game this season and 426 yards, to a single touchdown and TCU played the Cougars on the road.

TCU’s D held Clemson, the second best team in the ACC this season, to 10 points in a 14 to 10 victory.  That’s how good TCU’s D played during the regular season.

When it comes to quality of opponent, TCU towers over Boise State.  The Horned Frogs beat no less than 6 bowl game victors during the regular season. Clemson, SMU, Air Force, BYU, Utah and Wyoming all won bowl games in 2009.  TCU thumped every single one of those teams.

This game shouldn’t be a contest.  Boise State is returning to the site of its biggest victory, the win over Oklahoma by virtue of the Statue of Liberty play in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, but it won’t matter.

TCU should simply outclass the Broncos.  There’s no other way to write it.  The Horned Frogs should roll in this game and beat the Broncos by at least 14 points.

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