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Fielder is a Big Bopper – Brewers laying into the Struggling Marlins

May 13, 2009

Fielder, Brewers Big Boppers, To Cover RL Against Struggling Marlins

The Florida Marlins (17-15 SU, 16-16 RL, 17-15 O/U) and the Milwaukee Brewers (18-14 SU, 17-15 RL, 15-17 O/U) will both be looking to get back in the win column for MLB sports betting fans everywhere when they square off in the BetOnline Sportsbook and at Miller Park tonight at 8 PM ET.

Behemoth first baseman Prince Fielder went 3-for-4 with two home runs and four RBI to lead Milwaukee to a 6-3 win over the Marlins on Tuesday night as -150 home favorites while the game’s nine combined runs played Under the 9.5-run O/U total.

Rickie Weeks and Mike Cameron also went deep for the Brewers while Emilio Bonifacio led Florida by going 2-for-4 with a run batted in.

Tonight, the Marlins will hand the ball to right-hander Ricky Nolasco (2-3, 6.39 ERA) while the Brewers counter with right-hander Braden Looper (2-2, 4.18 ERA).

Nolasco tossed six innings while allowing three runs on eight hits in an 8-3 victory last Friday at Colorado to snap a personal three-game winless streak while Looper comes into tonight’s matchup looking to avoid losing his third consecutive start after getting smacked around to the tune of five runs on eight hits in just 3.1 innings of a 6-5 loss at Cincinnati on Thursday.

Here is a look at tonight’s key MLB betting trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.

  • The Marlins are 7-1 in Nolasco’s last 8 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • The Marlins are 7-2 in Nolasco’s last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • The Brewers are 4-1 in Looper’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • The Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • The Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • The Over is 4-0 in Nolasco’s last 4 starts overall.
  • The Under is 5-0 in Brewer’s last 5 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • The Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.
  • The Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.
  • The Marlins are 35-17 in the last 52 meetings.

MLB Odds:

  • Florida Marlins +1½ -200
  • Ricky Nolasco –R Ev
  • Milwaukee Brewers -1½ +170
  • Braden Looper –R -120
  • Over 9 -110
  • Under 9 -110

Analysis: The Marlins are struggling in a big way BetOnline MLB betting fanatics, going just 3-7 SU over their last 10 games while playing Under their set O/U totals in an identical three games.

Florida has scored just eight total runs over their last three games while going 1-2 during the span and will face a Brewers team that may be finding their collective long-ball stroke after rapping out a season-high four dingers on Tuesday.

Milwaukee has gone an impressive 6-1 in their last seven home games against a team with a winning record while also posting a stellar 5-1 mark in their last six games against a right-handed starter.

Those two trends, combined with the fact that Prince Fielder heated up in a big way on Tuesday with two home runs, leads me to believe the Brew Crew will win outright and cover the Run Line in the process.

I also think Milwaukee starter Braden Looper should be able to get back to throwing the way he did in his first four starts this season when he went 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA.

MLB Free Picks: Brewers -1½ Runs/Over 9 Total Runs

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