Fat Albert is Hot – Pirates try to Stop 8 Game Skid vs. Cardinals

Cardinals’ ‘Fat Albert’ To Make Duke, Reeling Pirates Pay Tonight

The Pittsburgh Pirates (12-19 SU, 16-15 RL, 17-13-1 O/U) will be looking to snap their eight-game losing streak in the BetOnline Sportsbook when they host the St. Louis Cardinals (20-12 SU, 18-14 RL, 17-13-2 O/U) at PNC Park tonight at 7 PM ET.

The Cardinals snapped their modest two-game skid by defeating the Cincinnati Reds 8-7 as a +100 underdog on Sunday. Chris Duncan drove in three runs for the Cardinals as the game’s 15 combined runs played Over the 8-run O/U total.

The reeling Pirates lost to the New York Mets 8-4 as a +150 underdog on Sunday. Nate McLouth hit a two-run home run in a losing effort while the game’s 12 combined runs played Over the 9.5-run Over/Under total.

Tonight, the Cardinals will look to record consecutive wins by handing the ball to right-hander Todd Wellemeyer (3-2, 4.75 ERA) while the Pirates counter with left-hander Zach Duke (3-3, 2.79 ERA).

Here is a look at tonight’s key MLB betting trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.

The Cardinals are 4-0 in Wellemeyer’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

The Cardinals are 4-1 in Wellemeyer’s last 5 starts.

The Pirates are 6-14 in Duke’s last 20 starts.

The Pirates are 5-12 in Duke’s last 17 starts as an underdog.

The Under is 5-0 in Wellemeyer’s last 5 road starts.

The Under is 4-0 in Duke’s last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.

The Cardinals are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh.

The Under is 5-2-1 in Duke’s last 8 starts vs. Cardinals.

The Cardinals are 49-22 in the last 71 meetings in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are 1-6 in Dukes last 7 starts vs. Cardinals.

MLB Odds

St. Louis Cardinals -1½ +140

Todd Wellemeyer –R -115

Pittsburgh Pirates +1½ -160

Zach Duke –L -105

Over 8½ -115

Under 8½ -105

Analysis: Todd Wellemeyer has been pretty strong in each of his last two starts, allowing two earned runs in each outing while tossing an identical seven innings each time out.

Pittsburgh’s Zach Duke was beaten by the Cardinals in his last start, allowing four earned runs on six hits including one home run in just 5.1 innings.

The Cardinals have also won three straight against the Pirates and four of the last six meetings overall while the Under has played out in three consecutive games following three straight Over outcomes.

Pittsburgh has dropped 12 of its last 13 games overall, while averaging just 3.0 runs per contest and hitting a measly .212 during the span.

Not only that, but the Pirates Zach Duke will have to face the game’s best hitter in ‘Fat Albert’ Pujols a player that has gone a blistering 14-for-28 with two home runs against him lifetime and 11-for-20 against the Pirates this season alone.

This game sounds like the perfect prescription for a convincing Cardinals rout.

I like the Cards to cover the Run Line while this game plays Over the set O/U run total for the fourth straight meeting between these ballclubs.

MLB Free Picks: Cardinals -1½ Runs/Over 8½ Total Runs