Expert MLB Picks – Florida Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Game-day: 7/10/2009

First-pitch: 9:40 pm est.

After last night’s 14 to 7 victory by the Marlins, and a nice score in the BetOnline online sportsbook, it only makes sense to go out to the well again on Friday night!

The Florida Marlins look to keep the Diamondbacks from starting another game winning streak when they send pitcher Ricky Nolasco to the mound. Arizona had been on a 6 game winning streak until Thursday night when the Marlins went into Arizona and dominated. Now, Nolasco will try to do the same. Ricky’s been okay this year with a 6 and 6 record, a 5.42 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP.

Unluckily for Nolasco, the man he faces in this desert duel, Dan Haren, has been close to awesome in 2009. Even though his record is only 8 and 5, Haren has dominated in both ERA with a 2.16 and in the all important WHIP stat with a .083.

Here is the BetOnline online sportsbook betting line for this game.

Florida Marlins
Ricky Nolasco – R +1 ½ -165 +140 O 8 Ev O/U 3 ½ -115/-115

Arizona Diamondbacks
Dan Haren – R -1 ½ +145 -160 U 8 -120 O/U 4 -125/-105

Here are a few online wagering trends for this game.

The Florida Marlins are 4 and 0 in their last 4 games versus a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15.

The Florida Marlins are 5 and 0 in Ricky Nolasco’s last 5 games on grass.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 5 and 1 in Danny Haren’s last 5 starts.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 5 and 1 in their last 6 games overall.

If one just takes a quick peek at the stats, then this game is Haren’s to lose, right? Not so fast. Danny Haren is awesome, no doubt, but against Florida, he hasn’t been that dominant and for some reason the D’Backs don’t show up with their bats when Haren takes the mound.

Haren is 0 and 2 with a 4.19 ERA in three starts against the Marlins. When Haren takes the mound, Arizona is just 10 and 7 this year.

Ricky Nolasco has been dominant versus the D’Backs in his career going 4 and 0 with a 2.12 ERA. He’s been even more dominant lately going 4 and 1 with a 1.54 ERA in 6 starts since being called back from the minors. His ERA is a terrific .96 in his last four games, all victories.

What does this mean? It means that bettors are looking at a pitcher’s duel between two of the best in baseball. I have to bet this game to go under the 8 runs in the sportsbook at -120.