Expert MLB Picks – King Felix, Mediocre Mariners, Host Overachieving Reds

Gifted left-hander Felix Hernandez was an AL Cy Young contender after posting a stellar 19-5 record last season.

Unfortunately, things are going so well for Hernandez or the mediocre Seattle Mariners this season.

Losers, of seven of their last 10 games, the M’s will host a Cincinnati Reds ballclub that has overachieved all season long despite going just 4-6 in their last 10 games heading into Friday night. Both ballclubs will be gunning for a victory tonight when they meet at Safeco Field at 10 PM ET.

Saturday, June 19, 2010 10:10 PM ET
MLB Betting Odd: N/A

TV: FS-O HD, FSN, MLBN
Radio: Sirius 177 XM

Cincinnati (37-30 SU, 34-26-7 O/U, 34-33 RL)
Seattle (25-41 SU, 29-31-6 O/U, 31-35 RL)

Here is a look at the key head-to-head trends for these two ballclubs, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert MLB Picks.

Reds are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.

Cincinnati 411

• Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 Saturday games.
• Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague road games.
• Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Seattle 411

• Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Mariners are 7-3 in their last 10 interleague home games.
• Mariners are 0-8 in their last 8 Saturday games.
• Mariners are 9-1 in Hernandez’s last 10 interleague starts.
• Mariners are 10-3 in Hernandez’s last 13 home starts.
• Mariners are 2-8 in Hernandez’s last 10 starts.

The Starters: Cincinnati will hand the ball to young rookie right-hander Sam LeCure (1-3, 3.75 ERA) who has fared pretty well since taking the injured Homer Bailey’s place in the rotation late last month.

Hernandez bounced back well from a poor outing in his previous start to limit San Diego to just two earned runs in 8.2 innings of a 4-2 road win on Sunday. Despite allowing two earned runs or less in five of his last seven starts, Hernandez has been victimized by his team’s pitiful offense, getting just two wins during the stretch.

Analysis: The Mariners had lost eight of his Felix Hernandez’s previous nine starts, but the ‘King’ looked so dominant in his last start that I just don’t see him losing this contest to a Reds team that has struggled quite a bit over the last 10 games.

With Seattle’s offense being so mediocre, I’m not sure the Mariners can cover the MLB Run Line in this contest, but I say they get the SU win at the very least behind the gifted Hernandez.

MLB Expert Picks: Seattle Mariners SU Money Line Win