Expert Horse Picks – Full Race Card from Belmont Park

We had two of the races taken off the turf on Wednesday at Belmont Park, but the weather held out, and the conditions hopefully will improve as the week moves on.

The turf course was labeled “good” on Wednesday and there is a slight chance we could see a shower today.

However, with this being the last week of racing at Belmont Park, the races figure to be left on the turf course, and six of the races for Thursday is carded for the grass.

We are going cheap today with the play of the day, a $16,000 maiden claiming race for New York breds. It looks like we can beat the morning line favorite for the top spot and could catch a decent enough payoff.

The late Pick 3 play starts in the seventh race, and with four of our selections at 8/1 or higher on the morning line, we stand a good chance of padding our bankroll if we can get a couple of them home first.

Today’s Play of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 6 Md $16,000 (3:40 ET)

#1 Spinetta 3/1

#3 Rousing Kitty 5/1

#5 Picnic Rock 5/2

#8 Simple Western 7/2

Analysis: #1 Spinetta makes her second career start after an encouraging debut. She was at the back of the pack in the early going and made a good late rally to finish third, beaten two lengths for the top spot for a $25K tag. The winner of that race was Gin Tango, who ran second versus state bred $15K non-winners of two, then beat open $15K non-winners of two in his most recent outing on June 26. Runner up Saarlandisourland graduated in her most recent start by 10 3/4 lengths on June 26 versus $20K state breds. The live barn goes with a low profile jock that has won just two races on the year, both for this barn early in the year. The new barn drops her into a softer spot here for $16K.

#3 Rousing Kitty had to check coming out of the gate and never got untracked, finishing a distant eighth. She was sent off at 5/1 in the field of eight and encouraging seeing Edgar give this gal another go, this time with blinkers added. The filly has two sibs to horse race, both winners, top earner Edge Road ($65K). I am expecting to see a much better effort out of her here in this softer spot.

Wagering

WIN: #1 to win at 2/1 or better.

EX: 1,3 / 1,3,5,8

TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,5,8 / 1,3,5,6,8

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Belmont Park:

Starting in Race 7: $1: 3,5 / 4,6,8 / 2,4,8,11 = $24

BEL Race 7 Clm $7,500 (4:12 ET)

#3 Hedge Fund, #5 Trophy Road

#3 Hedge Fund loves to run second and loves to find traffic troubles. Last out the gelding ran second against $10K claimers, having steady in traffic on the far turn and making a mild late run while wide to finish fourth behind a couple of these he faces again today. He drops a notch in class and is reunited with Ramon here. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and if he can stay out of trouble he has a shot of being in the mix here and the 6/1 ML looks fair enough.

#5 Trophy Road set the early fractions while down along the inside and could not hold off the winner late, settling for the runner up spot. The five year old gets a jock and barn upgrade here as he makes his first start off the claim by the Galluscio barn. He cuts back a half furlong which should suit and he owns a solid pace profile throughout. Looks tough but at a light price.

BEL Race 8 OClm $50,000N2X (4:45 ET)

#6 Southside Babe, #4 Nedjma, #8 Queen of Protocol

#6 Southside Babe made her local debut last out in state bred stakes company, checking in fifth over yielding footing in the Sabellina. She drops into the allowance ranks and she passed the Alw-2 level at Remington last August and has run well on the grass in nearly every outing (16-4-4-4). She makes her second start off a 2 1/2 month break and for a sharp outfit. This looks like a good spot and her 9/2 ML looks more than fair.

#4 Nedjma makes her second start off a seven-month layoff, last out making a mild late run to finish third going seven furlongs over yielding ground. She was in the mix in NY bred stakes company going lone last summer and should be fitter second off the bench here for the Hushion barn. The mare is a three-time winner over the turf here.

BEL Race 9 Md $25,000 (5:17 ET)

#4 She’s Smokin Hot, #11 Stratton’s Girl, #8 Phone Jazz, #2 First Flute

Analysis: #4 She’s Smokin Hot looks like she has found a soft spot for her debut here for the Chip Dutrow barn. The trainer is showing a 0 for 1 mark with first time starters, but his dad along with his brothers Rick and Tony both know how to fire early and no reason to think Chip is not going to follow in the footsteps of his siblings. The filly is by Smokin Mel (11% winners with debut runners) out of a mare that has dropped four foals to race, all winners, top earner full bro Smokin Warrior ($153K). The filly popped a bullet work on July 9.

#11 Stratton’s Girl returns off a three month break for the Terranova barn that is 25% winners (with a +ROI) with horses making their first start off a 61-180 day layoff. She has had some traffic troubles in her last two outings and drops a notch in class here. She has been working steadily over the past two months and improvement here for a sharp outfit would be no surprise.

Price Plays From Belmont Park:

These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R1: #5 In for a Dime 10/1

R1: #7 Jewel of the Sky 20/1

R4: #2 Kissmycheeks 8/1

R5: #2 Mind Boggling 10/1

R5: #8 Always Fishin 8/1

R8: #8 Queen of Protocol 8/1

R8: #5 Doree Daze 8/1

R9: #8 Phone Jazz 10/1

R9: #2 First Flute 8/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!