Easy Money – Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox (14-8) at Tampa Bay Rays (9-14)
Friday, May 1

MLB betting odds:  Red Sox -120, Rays +100, Total 9

Right-handers take the mound, as Justin Masterson of the Red Sox (2-0, 1.69 ERA) opposes Andy Sonnanstine of the Rays (0-3, 7.78 ERA).

Here are some of the MLB betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
(Numbers may go back to last season)

• BOS has won 12 of its last 14 games
• TB has lost 11 of its last 16 games
• TB has lost five of its last seven home games

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD sports betting trends:

• TB has won four of the last five meetings
• Four of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
• TB has won 12 of the last 15 meetings as the home team

The Red Sox were sailing along with eleven wins in a row when they lost to the Cleveland Indians 9-8 on Tuesday. In the opener of this big four-game series, a rematch of last year’s American League Championship Series, the Rays made a big statement by taking a bite out of the Boston pitching staff, winning a 13-0 decision (make that a TKO) where they had 17 hits to just one for the Sox. Matt Garza had a no-hitter going into the seventh innings and left with two outs in the eighth, having given up just one hit and striking out ten.

That would seem to be a great setup for the weekend, Boston leads the division with a 14-8 record, which is percentage points ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays, while the Rays are at the back of the pack for the moment, a half game behind the fourth-place Baltimore Orioles. Only 5.5 games separate these teams, so if Tampa Bay can run the table, it becomes a whole new ballgame as the AL East race gets hot.

One thing that was to be a bit worrisome is that Tampa Bay, which thoroughly dominated the opposition at Tropicana Field last season, is just 3-5 at home in 2009. They do have Boston’s number in St. Pete though, winning 12 of the last 15. Andy Sonnanstine, Friday’s pitcher for Tampa Bay, made three starts against Boston last year, and the Rays won each of them, out-scoring the BoSox by a 19-7 count. Sonnanstine gave up three earned runs in 20-1/3 innings in those games. This year he’s struggled. Not only does he have a WHIP ratio of 1.83, the Rays have scored a grand total of ten runs in his four starts, all of which were losses for the team. Tampa Bay does have a couple of run producers, however; Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena are tied for second in the major leagues in RBI’s.

Justin Masterson was just so-so against Tampa Bay last season, giving up eight runs in 12 innings spread over a couple of starts. This year he’s been very strong in his two starts, holding the Orioles to a single run in 5-1/3 innings on April 20, then doing the same against the Yankees six days later.

Conventional wisdom may dictate that the Red Sox would rebound from such a humiliating defeat on Thursday. But while we don’t contend that the one-hit performance was a sign of trouble for Boston, we understand that Tampa Bay picked its games with the Red Sox to have some of its better moments. This may be the right timing for the Rays and as a home dog, we can’t resist. We’ll go with Tampa Bay, the even-money underdog in the BetOnline Sportsbook.

JAY’S PLAY:  TAMPA BAY (Even) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)