Duke at Maryland – Take the Terps at Home

Duke Blue Devils (22-5 SU, 12-13-1 ATS) at Maryland Terrapins (17-9 SU, 11-7-2 ATS)

BetOnline NCAA Basketball Sports Betting Odds: DUKE -6

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* DUKE has covered one of its last six games

* DUKE has won 20 of its last 25 games SU

* DUKE has played its last five games OVER the total

* DUKE has played 11 of its last 16 games UNDER the total

* DUKE has covered one of its last seven road games

* MAR has covered five of its last six games

* MAR has won four of its last six games SU

* MAR has played five of its last six games OVER the total

* MAR has won 11 of its last 13 home games SU

* MAR has played four of its last five home games OVER the total

Also…

* DUKE is 4-2-1 ATS in its last seven meetings

* DUKE has won five of the last seven meetings SU

* MAR has had the shooting edge in four of the last five meetings

* MAR has had the rebounding edge in eight of the last ten meetings

* DUKE has made more three-pointers in each of the last nine meetings

Maryland is a poor shooting team, hitting slightly under 42% for the season, but they shot 46% and made 13 three-point shots in Saturday’s 88-85 overtime win over North Carolina, which came on the heels of a 29-point loss to Clemson. That’s about the story of the season for the Terps, who have at times played badly enough to put Gary Williams’ job in jeopardy, at least in the perception of many.

After the two biggest wins they scored in ACC play this year, Maryland slumped. After defeating Miami, they lost by 17 points to North Carolina, and three days after they beat Virginia Tech, they were destroyed by Clemson. Usually when a team scores a huge upset, there is a concern about how they will be able to get their emotion up again for the next game, or whether they will get caught reading their own press clippings. Maryland is not a good enough team to be able to play well against a team like Duke with anything less than full focus.

This might be an exception. This would be about as big a revenge game as one can imagine. In the previous meeting, on January 24, the Terrapins shot just 28%, got four points from Greivis Vasquez, trailed 40-15 at the half and by as many as 44 points at one point, and lost a horrible 85-44 decision to Duke. It was the worst loss Williams has suffered at Maryland and the fourth-worst defeat in school history.

I look upon that win over North Carolina as a confidence builder. This is obviously a game in College Park, and according to Vasquez, “The whole campus hates Duke, so they (students) are going to be fired up. That will help us to get into the game and go crazy and play with a lot of emotion and a lot of passion.” Vasquez had 35 points against the Tar Heels. Duke is 3-3 in its last six games, and Maryland is not in bad form, having covered five of its last six. There is also renewed hope for a spot in the NCAA tournament for the Terps, and that would make quite a comeback story for Williams.

We’ll take the points with Maryland, the six-point underdog in the NCAA college basketball sports betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: MARYLAND +6 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay makes his share of shots from downtown as a contributor to the BetOnline Locker Room)