Dallas vs. Denver Game 5 – Smell ya later Big D

Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets

Game 5 – Western Conference Semi-Finals
(Denver leads 3-2)
Wednesday, May 13

BetOnline NBA Betting Odds:  DENVER -8.5, Total 213.5

Here are some of the NBA betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• DALL has lost three of its last four games SU
• DALL is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games
• DALL has covered two of its last seven road games
• DALL has lost 14 of its last 20 road games SU
• DEN has covered eight of its last nine games
• DEN has won seven of its last nine games SU
• DEN has covered seven of its last ten road games
• DEN has played seven of its last ten road games UNDER the total
• DEN has won its last 15 home games SU
• DEN has covered its last six home games

Also…

• DEN has won eight of the last nine meetings SU
• DEN has covered ten of the last 12 meetings
• The last three meetings have gone OVER the total
• DEN has won seven of the last eight meetings SU as the home team
• DEN has covered six of the last eight meetings as the home team
• DEN has had the shooting edge in six of the last seven meetings
• DALL has had the rebounding edge in 12 of the last 14 meetings

Dirk Nowitzki came through again for the Mavericks in Game 4, scoring 44 points and making 16 of his 17 free throws. This time, however, some of his teammates chipped in. Josh Howard, who has been bothered by injuries, had 21 points and the bench had three players in double figures. As a team, Dallas shot 50.6% from the floor and made 36 free throws.

It’s not that Dallas hasn’t shot well in this series before. They were 49% in Game 1 and 47% in Game 2, yet went down to double-digit defeats in both of those games. Denver has "big-man-by-committee" and capable people like Nene and Chris Andersen, but no one who can be dominant in the paint with defense and rebounding like Marcus Camby was. To Dallas, this is an opportunity that they can’t really jump on.  It is to their disadvantage that they have no way of playing a real post game, where they can position someone down low and continue feeding him. Nowitzki is not the "muscle guy" inside.

The technical numbers still greatly favor Denver, which has not only covered eight of its last nine, but also is on a 15-game home winning streak and has covered eight of the last nine meetings with Dallas. Even though the Mavs were able to win Game 4, they only got a push.

I’m not sure a lot of the barometers look especially good for the Mavs. They were only 3 of 14 from beyond the arc in Game 4, committed 14 turnovers and got no points out of starting center Erick Dampier. They out-rebounded Denver by a 50-34 margin, but the Nuggets will be expecting the return of Andersen, who sat out Game 4 with the flu. Kenyon Martin, who is in the midst of his little controversy with Dallas owner Mark Cuban, scored exactly two points and pulled down exactly two rebounds in the last game, and I can’t imagine that repeating itself.

The last eight home wins by Denver have been by the double-digit variety. The Game 3 win against Dallas was the only victory since March 31 that was not by ten points or more. They will close this thing out tonight and wait for the Lakers (or the Yao-less Rockets of course). We lay the points with the Nuggets, the 8.5-point favorite in the BetOnline Sportsbook.

JAY’S PLAY:  DENVER -8.5 *** 
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)