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Cowboys and Saints are the Best Bets to Reach the NFC Conference Championship

August 1, 2010

The Dallas Cowboys and the New Orleans Saints are the best bets to reach the NFC Conference Championship this season.

It has nothing to do, really, with whether or not the Saints or Cowboys are better than the Minnesota Vikings or Green Bay Packers. It’s just that based on the NFL odds in the sportsbook, and considering certain factors regarding all four teams, the Saints and Cowboys offer the most betting value to reach the NFC Conference Final.

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To Reach NFC Conference Final

Best Bet A: New Orleans Saints +225

Sure, the NFL odds appear low, but out of the top four consensus Super Bowl contenders in the NFC this season, which team appears best suited to win home field advantage throughout the playoffs? That’s right, the New Orleans Saints.

Why? The NFC South is weaker than both the NFC East and the NFC North. Atlanta isn’t a bad team, but they’re not as good as the Saints. Sure, New Orleans could have a Super Bowl hangover, but it might not matter. They get to play Tampa Bay twice this season, the Cleveland Browns, the St. Louis Rams, and the Seattle Seahawks. They get to take on Minnesota and Pittsburgh in the Superdome. Things just set up for the Saints to grab that home field advantage in the playoffs.

Best Bet B: Dallas Cowboys +250

I love the Cowboys’ chances of making it to the NFC Conference Championship game. At the odds, they rival the Saints. The only problem for the ‘Boys is that, unlike last season when everybody thought the NFC East was a great conference, this season it really, truly is. The ‘Boys are awesome, but the Giants (see blow) are going to be good this season as well.

Washington (see further below) is the best underdog pick given the odds in my estimation in this category. So, that’s 3 out of the 4 teams capable of making it to the NFC Championship game. Again, I love the ‘Boys, but I can’t put them ahead of the Saints, not at those NFL odds, to reach the NFC Conference Final because their division is loaded.

Best Bet C: New York Giants +500

Expect the G-Men to bounce back big time off of their horrendous 2008-2009 NFL Season. The defense signed Antrel Rolle away from the Arizona Cardinals. Rolle is one of the best safeties in the NFL. He should help solve some of those issues in the defensive backfield that the Giants faced last season.

More importantly, the healthy defensive front 7 should put serious pressure on the QB giving even more relief to the secondary. Okay, so the defensive issues are solved. As far as the offense is concerned, it’s time to get off of QB Eli Manning’s back. He’s a good QB, okay? He just is. Plus, he gets WR Hakeem Nicks for the whole season and WR Steve Smith should be even better this season then he was last season.

Worst Bet: Minnesota Vikings +325 or Green Bay Packers +325

I’m not in love with the Vikings or the Packers this upcoming season. I was. I was in love with the Packers. I mean, I was as much in love with them as my buddy E-dub who’s picked them to win the NFC Conference, but I’m not anymore.

I think both teams are talented. Green Bay is very talented and would be my pick in this category if not for two issues. First, the Packers’ cornerbacks are old. Second, their schedule, much like the Vikings, is absolutely brutal.

So, one of these teams wins the conference at 10 and 6 while the Saints win the South at 12 and 4 and the ‘Boys win the East at 11 and 5. So, the Packers, or Vikings, whomever you like, ends up in the wildcard round. If they win, they have to travel to Dallas to battle the Cowboys. If they win that, then they most likely will have to travel to New Orleans to battle the Saints. That’s a lot of traveling to do.

Favre isn’t waffling on playing this season because he’s scared of training camp. He’s really scared of playing against the defenses for the Saints, Dolphins, Cowboys, Jets and Patriots. Those are 5 of the Vikings’ first 7 opponents to start the 2010-2011 NFL Season.

Best Underdog Bet: Washington Redskins +900

Even if you believe QB Donovan McNabb is over the hill, you have to realize that coach Mike Shanahan is used to working with over the hill QBs. I mean, John Elway was no spring chicken in the late 1990’s when Shanahan helped Big John to two straight Super Bowl victories.

Also, Mike’s not only got his RB back in Clinton Portis but he’s got two other terrific running backs to back-up Mr. Portis. He’s also got a very good defense to work with. Finally, out of all of the teams in the NFC East, the ‘Skins, because they were horrid last season, get the cupcake schedule. Washington gets to play: the Rams, the overrated Bears, the Lions, the overrated Titans, the NCAA Division II team pretending to be an NFL squad Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the okay on some days Jacksonville Jaguars. A few upsets and all of a sudden the ‘Boys and G-Men (and Eagles…I suppose) have something to worry about.

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