Covering the Football Odds on Niners, Saints Matchup is a Brees

The San Francisco 49ers looked nothing like the division-winning, defensive juggernaut that was supposed to scare the hell out of the NFC this season in their regular season opener a week ago as they failed to cover the football odds in the BetOnline Football Sportsbook in their shocking ‘smackdown’ loss to the rebuilding Seattle Seahawks on Sunday.

The New Orleans Saints, on the other hand, managed to record a solid win to kick off the 2010 regular season despite clearly not playing their best brand of football.

Now, I’m thinking BetOnline pro football betting enthusiasts will have an easy pick on their hands when the two NFC rivals take to the gridiron at Candlestick Park on Monday night at 8:30 PM ET.

Monday, September 20, 8:30 PM ET

Live from Candlestick Park – San Francisco, California

TV: ESPN

Radio: Sirius 125 XM and 126 XM

NFL Betting Odds

New Orleans Saints -5½ -110

San Francisco 49ers +5½ -110

Over 43½ -110

Under 43½ -110

Moneyline

Saints -250

49ers +210

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Here is a look at the key head-to-head trends surrounding this contest.

• Over is 6- 0 in the last 6 meetings in San Francisco.
• Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in San Francisco.
• Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
• Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
• Over is 3-1- 1 in the last 5 meetings.

New Orleans (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U)

• Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
• Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Saints are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC.
• Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Saints are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

The Saints beat the Minnesota Viking 14- 9 in a rematch of last season’s NFC title tilt to kick off the regular season on Thursday and narrowly cashed in as a 4.5-point home favorite as Drew Brees completed 27 of 36 passes for 237 yards and one touchdown while Pierre Thomas added 71 rushing yards on 19 carries with one touchdown.

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San Francisco (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-0-1 O/U)

• 49ers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an S.U. loss.
• 49ers are 5-0-3 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss.
• 49ers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
• 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 2.
• 49ers are 8-2-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The San Francisco 49ers were routed 31-6 by the Seahawks on Sunday, managing just two first half field goals as Alex Smith completed just 26 of 45 passes for 225 yards with two interceptions.

Frank Gore was held to 38 rushing yards on 17 carries as the Niners failed to cover the game’s football odds as a 3-point road favorite.

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Analysis: Okay NFL betting buffs, I’m going to get right to the point here by saying that my man Gary Payton got it totally right in his BetOnline Inside the Lines Episode 1.1 Video with Kenyon Rasheed when he openely ripped his favorite team’s quarterback by saying that the Niners’ Alex Smith was “garbage”.

Not only do the ‘Glove’ and I both share some on-court basketball skills (yeah, I play ‘lockdown’ defense too) but we also share the same opinion when it comes to Smith.

The now, sixth-year quarterback has never ever lived up to his status as the No. 1 overall draft pick in the 2005 draft and only earned the starting job with Frisco this season because he played well after taking over for Shaun Hill near the midway point last season.

I think the Niners and head coach Mike Singletary may have dropped the ball in assuming Smith was ready for prime time status after five years of mostly, disappointing, mediocre play.

I know Frisco has posted some spectaculr ATS statistics and were a real force against the betting odds spread last season, but I just don’t see the Niners winning this contest, even at home, after the way they played last week.

I say back Drew Brees to lead the Saints to a convincing win over the Niners while Alex Smith struggles again – giving the San Francisco’s brass something to really think about as they move toward Week 3.

In addition to playing the Saints to improve to 6-0 ATS in the last six meeetings against the 49ers when they meet in San Francisco, I also like the Under to narrowly play out for the first tim in the last seven games between these rivals in Frisco.

Expert NFL Picks: Saints -5.5 Points/Under 43.5 Total Points

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