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College Hoops Rematch Gonzaga @ Tennessee

January 8, 2009

BetOnline NCAA Basketball Betting Odds: TENNESSEE -4, Total 155.5

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* GONZ has won 16 of its last 22 games SU

* GONZ has lost four of its last five games SU

* GONZ has covered one of its last five road games

* GONZ has won 15 of its last 23 road games SU

* GONZ has played five of its last seven road games UNDER the total

* TENN has won 19 of its last 25 games SU

* TENN has won its last 37 home games SU

These teams met earlier this season at the Verizon Center in the Old Spice Classic, where Gonzaga, shooting 74%, came away with an 88-74 win. So here we have that rare instance where teams who are not part of the same conference will play each other twice in the regular season. Since that win, Gonzaga has been slumping, and in fact this one-time top five club has lost four of its last five games. Coach Mark Few sees the downturn as a by-product of his team’s mental attitude, pointing to the overtime loss to U-Conn at Seattle’s Key Arena "Mentally, that has had a huge impact on this club," he says.

That mental attitude carried over into subsequent losses against Portland State and Utah, and now the ‘Zags are reeling and coming into a venue where the opponent is not only looking for revenge but is riding a 37-game winning streak on its home floor. You had better believe the atmosphere will be super-charged. It would be hard to imagine Tennessee duplicating its 34% shooting effort from that previous meeting, especially as the Vols average 88.5 points a game at home, a figure only nine teams on the big board have exceeded. Defense has been spotty for this Tennessee team, which has allowed opponents to shoot 43% from the field. Kansas out-shot the Volunteers 51.5%–39.4% in a 92-85 Jayhawk win on Saturday.

Gonzaga’s heretofore reliable scorers have been missing the mark recently. Josh Heytvelt has shot 32% in the last two games, while Austin Daye (12.5 pp, 6.1 rpg), who was poised for a sensational sophomore year, instead looks like someone going through the sophomore jinx, as he has gone 31% in those last two defeats. Few have made mention of the idea that Gonzaga doesn’t have a "go-to" guy for those tough moments. Finding guys on the bench who can play quality minutes has certainly been a problem.

By contrast, Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl seems to have a lot of guys he can throw out there who can play, no less than nine different players have averaged at least 15 minutes a game with the Vols. If Tyler Smith (17.2 ppg) and Wayne Chism (52%, 12.2 ppg) were consistent here, that would be a big help. The bottom line is that this team should be hungry coming off the loss, and should have some fundamental advantages in the matchup. The number is reasonable as well. Let’s lay the points with Tennessee, the four-point favorite in the BetOnline NCAA college basketball odds.

JAY’S PLAY: TENNESSEE -4 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay makes his share of shots from downtown as a contributor to the BetOnline Locker Room)

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