College Game Day Pick – Boston College vs. Florida State

Florida State Seminoles (2-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Boston College Eagles (3-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)

Saturday, October 3: 3:30 p.m.

BetOnline College Football Betting Odds: Florida State -4 ½, Total Points 46

Here are some of the NCAA football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

Florida State: 4-1 SU in the last 5 road games
Florida State: Total has gone OVER in 7 of the last 10 games

Boston College: 7-3 SU last 10 games
Boston College: 5-0 SU in the last 5 home games

There might not be a team in all of college football that gets less out of its talent than Florida State. Conversely, the opposite is true at Boston College, which finds itself at 3-1, despite losing several players to injury and transfer before the season.

For Florida State, time is slowly ticking for head coach Bobby Bowden. Despite winning two National Championships in the 1990’s, the program has been up and down for most of this decade. Want an unbelievable stat on the Seminoles? They are just 7-7 in their last 14 games against teams from BCS conferences.

Their season has already been more up and down than the stock market, as they lost a nail-biter on opening night to Miami, almost lost to I-AA Jacksonville State, dominated No. 9 ranked BYU on the road, and followed that up with a loss at home to South Florida.

Statistics defy this team, so saying what their defense or offense is ranked in comparison with others literally means nothing. Know this however: On any given day, their defense is as good as anyone’s in college football, led by linebacker Dekota Watson and cornerback Greg Reid; who may be the best true freshman in college football. However, they’re ranked just No. 99 nationally in total defense.

As for Boston College, there has been nothing but turmoil since the beginning of the new year for the Eagles. Former coach Jeff Jagodzinski was fired after he interviewed for the vacant New York Jets head coaching job and was replaced by longtime assistant Frank Spaziani.

More bad news hit the campus when it was revealed that All-ACC linebacker Mark Herzlich would miss the entire 2009 season after being diagnosed with cancer. Later on, projected starting quarterback Dominque Davis decided to transfer.

Yet after all of that, Boston College finds itself 3-1 after last Saturday’s overtime victory over Wake Forest. Despite losing Herzlich, the Eagles defense is giving up just 14 points, and a shade under 265 yards of total offense per contest, which are both ranked in the top 20 nationally.

Looking back at Florida State, they certainly have more than enough talent to win this game, but which FSU team will show up? The one who scored 54 points and had 512 yards of total offense at BYU, or the one that had just a touchdown and under 300 yards a week later against South Florida.

Expect the first. Florida State is a team that simply plays better when expectations are lower, than when the world is looking for a great performance from them. They are at their best when they are away from Tallahassee and simply can go out and play without any pressure.

Boston College has gotten more out of their talent than maybe anyone else in the ACC. But they just don’t have the horses to match up Saturday.

Aaron’s Pick: Florida State -4 ½