College Football’s Biggest Games – USC vs. Ohio State (Sept 12)

USC Trojans at Ohio State Buckeyes

Saturday, September 12

NCAA Football Betting Odds: OHIO STATE -3.5

Here are some of the NCAAF betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* USC has won its last ten games SU

* USC has won seven of its last eight road games SU

* USC has covered 11 of its last 12 non-conference games

* OSU has won eight of its last ten games SU

* OSU has covered five of its last six games

* OSU has played four of its last six games OVER the total

* OSU has won 24 of its last 26 home games SU

* OSU has covered ten of its last 14 home games

* OSU has played four of its last six home games UNDER the total

* USC has covered the last four meetings

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Both of these teams get a "warmup" game prior to this showdown: USC hosts San Jose State, while Ohio State has Navy coming in the week before. It is not likely that either one of those games is going to provide much in the way of a preview of this game, although Ohio State is going to have to get ready for the wishbone, which means they’ll have less ability to really look ahead.

Ohio State’s Terelle Pryor, who was the most celebrated recruit in the country last year, was undergoing his first major test in last season’s game with USC, and he had little effect. Now he’s a year older and presumably wiser, and the Buckeyes have made the adjustment to an offense that featured a mobile quarterback running spread option plays. I am not as big on Pryor as a lot of people seem to be, mostly because I don’t see the talent of Pat White in him as a runner, and don’t see him as a passer that is going to scare many folks.

I’ll admit, this would be much more of a concern if USC could put last year’s defense on the field again, but they can’t, and the reality is that the Trojans have lost a bunch of guys who are in the pros now – Ray Maualuga, Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews, Fili Moala, Cary Harris, Kevin Ellison and Kaluka Maiava. I’m not saying Pete Carroll can’t replace these guys with a lot of high-level athletes who themselves will be in the NFL someday, but there won’t be the same kind of cohesion. One thing you CAN guarantee, however, is that free safety Taylor Mays will give Pryor fits if he gets the opportunity.

If I was Ohio State, I’d be a bit worried about my defensive front seven. Not that it’s suspect, but the linebacking corps in particular lacks experience and will be using some freshmen in the rotation. On an every-down basis, I’m not sure there is going to be a team in the country who can maintain a rushing game like USC, which has four tailbacks – Stefon Johnson, C.J, Gable, Marc Tyler and Joe McKnight – who could start for 90% of the teams in the country, not to mention a fulkback in Stanley Havili who could catch 40-50 passes out of the backfield.

Who will be throwing those passes? Hmmm, that IS the question, isn’t it? Well, if USC has shown something, it is the ability to recruit signal-callers. Out goes Matt Sanchez, drafted in the first round by the New York Jets (after a trade-up), then Aaron Corp, who may be out for up to three weeks with a cracked fibula, and in comes Matt Barkley, who may have been the best high school QB in the country last year. It will be a more pressurized situation for Barkley to come in this soon, if he has to, but then again, Carroll can also call on Mitch Mustain, who was formerly the starter at Arkansas before transferring.

Hey listen – we understand that power teams getting points at home are always tough, especially if they are going against a freshman quarterback. Both of these teams have lost sufficient numbers of star players over the last couple of years. At the same time, we also know that in the recent past, as the best of the Pac-10 (meaning USC) has gone against the best of the Big Ten (whether it’s Ohio State, Penn State or Illinois) there is a noticeable disparity in depth and speed. Until I see differently, I’m inclined to continue going with the team with more speed. That’s USC, the 3.5-point favorite in the BetOnline NCAA college football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: USC -3.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)