College Football Week 5 – Michigan vs. Michigan State

Michigan Wolverines (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) at Michigan State Spartans (1-3 SU, 1-2 ATS)

Saturday, October 3: 12:00 p.m.

NCAA Football Betting Odds: Michigan State -1

It’s been somewhat of a lost season for the Michigan State Spartans. But despite starting out just 1-3, a win over cross state rival Michigan Saturday would be a cure for all that ails them.

For the Spartans, many expected them to be right with Penn State and Ohio State all season long in the Big 10 race. But after a very convincing season opening win against Montana State, Michigan State has lost three in a row.

Although this team is scoring points, they are giving them up at a higher rate. In three games against Central Michigan, Notre Dame and Wisconsin, the defense is allowing an average of 33 points per game, as well at least 400 yards of total offense. Of even more concern is a passing defense that has given up 299 yards per game and 11 touchdowns in that same stretch. Overall, the unit is ranked 10th in the Big 10 and 96th nationally.

Offensively, the Spartans have been good, but hardly great this season. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has completed just better than 60 percent of his passes, but has thrown seven touchdowns to just two interceptions. However, the Spartans still have yet to find a suitable replacement for Javon Ringer, one of college football’s best running backs last year. This season, Caulton Ray and Larry Caper have split carries, but both are averaging just 40 yards per game.

As for things down the road in Ann Arbor, they’ve been quite different.

To the surprise of everyone, Michigan is 4-0, including a thrilling victory three weeks ago over Notre Dame. The season hasn’t come without struggles however, as the Wolverines had to hold on for dear life last weekend against Indiana. The Hoosiers actually outgained Michigan by close to 100 yards of total offense, and if it wasn’t for a late Tate Forcier touchdown pass, followed by a Donovan Warren interception, the Wolverines would have lost.

Michigan is led by Forcier, their do-it-all freshman quarterback.  He leads an offense that has a number of weapons on the ground, a unit that is actually ranked No. 8 overall nationally in rushing.  Look for running backs Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor to get plenty of touches as well.

Defensively, Michigan has some work to do, as they are currently ranked just 89th overall and give up close to 385 yards per game.

As for the game Saturday, if offensive football is what you like, this will be one to tune into. Both Michigan and Michigan State know how to score points in bunches, but also give up entirely too many as well. 

In this one, it may come down to whomever has the ball last in the 4th quarter. But from what we’ve seen, Michigan appears to be the team with more weapons on offense, and the one more likely to win a shootout. Although it is the Wolverines first trip away from the Big House, expect them to beat their cross state rivals yet again.

Aaron’s Pick: Michigan + 1