College Football Sportsbook Picks – Troy Trojans vs. Florida Gators

Troy Trojans (0-1 SU & ATS) at Florida Gators (1-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

Saturday, September 12 – 12:21 PM ET

College Football Sportsbook Odds: FLORIDA -36, Total 59

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• TROY has won 16 of its last 24 games SU
• TROY has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
• TROY has lost four of its last five road games SU
• FLA has won its last eleven games SU
• FLA has covered its last nine games
• FLA has played six of its last eight games OVER the total

You’re not going to be able to tell anything from Florida’s 62-3 win (and 624 offensive yards) over Charleston Southern, an FCS also-ran, but we have plenty of background to go on for our college football analysis, that much is assured. Tim Tebow is back under center, and he was intercepted only four times last year while throwing 30 touchdown passes. Even though he lost Louis Murphy and Percy Harvin from his wide receiver corps, Tebow, as always, has plenty of speed with which to work, and though we can’t promise they’ll open up the playbook here, we do suspect that speed will be on display here against Division I opposition, as the Gators will have college football odds on them for the first time in the 2009 season.

The important thing to remember is that from a defense that made significant strides throughout the season and held Oklahoma to just two touchdowns in the BCS title game, the Gators have returned the entire two-deep.

College football followers know that Troy’s offense is considered to be the team’s strength, and Levi Brown had 263 yards in the season-opening loss to Bowling Green, but the Trojans averaged less than three yards a carry with its running backs. What’s worse is that Troy’s stop unit looked positively sieve-like in that game, as Tyler Sheehan passed for 339 yards.

Two years ago the Gators got off to a 49-7 halftime lead against Troy and coasted home, although they only won it by 28 points, which actually still covered in the college football sportsbook odds. That is our concern here, as Troy would seem to own the ability to hit the "backdoor." However, that Troy defense gives us major concern, as Florida’s third teamers are probably more talented and proficient than Bowling Green’s first string. I really doubt Florida will take this team too much for granted either; last season Troy went into Baton Rouge and had another SEC team, LSU, down 31-10 in the fourth quarter before collapsing and losing, though they covered easily in the college football sportsbook.

This Gator team looks like it’s not just playing to win, but to cover as well (nine straight wins against the number, and 17 of the last 21). We’re going to lay the points here with Florida, the 36-point favorite in the BetOnline NCAA college football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: FLORIDA -36 *

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)