College Football Sportsbook – Missouri Faces Most Dangerous Opponent Yet

One of the more intriguing matchups offered by the college football sportsbook this week has Big 12 title implications, as the undefeated Tigers of Missouri pay a visit to their most dangerous opponent yet, the Aggies of Texas A&M, in a game that kicks off at Noon ET on Saturday at Kyle Field (artificial turf) in College Station, TX. Missouri is ranked #21 in the Associated Press poll, and #19 in the coaches’ poll, and that rankling is certainly on the line.

In the college football odds on this game, Texas A&M is listed as a 3.5-point favorite.

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Missouri Tigers (5-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) at Texas A&M Aggies (3-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Live at Kyle Field

College Station, TX

Saturday, October 16 –  Noon ET

TV:  Fox Sports Net 

College Football Sportsbook Odds:

Texas A&M -3.5

Missouri +3.5

Key stats for Missouri — The Tigers rank third in the country in scoring defense, giving up just 11.2 points on average. And they are seventh in pass efficiency defense. However, after facing squads from Illinois, McNeese State, San Diego State, Miami of Ohio and Colorado, they can be expected to face a sterner challenge against Texas A&M. Missouri does not have anybody among the top 100 rushers, but they manage to average 147 yards a game. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert has completed 67% of his passes and been intercepted only three times. His leading receiver is sophomore T.J. Moe, who has caught 44 passes, ranking him seventh in the nation in that category. In the college football sportsbook odds, however, Missouri sports only a 2-2 ATS record.

Key stats for Texas A&M — The Aggies’ rushing defense has held up pretty well; A&M is seventh in the country in that department, allowing just 81 yards a game. Of course, in last week’s loss to Arkansas, Ryan Mallett exploited the secondary for 310 yards and three TD passes. In that game, A&M only got 15 of 40 from QB Jerrod Johnson, and he is just 62nd on the nation’s passing efficiency list, having been picked off nine times. Jeff Fuller has been a fantastic target for him, with 34 catches for 503 yards, and running back Christine Michael has averaged 101 yards a game.

Here are some of the trends as they impact the college football lines on this game:

• Missouri has won nine of its last ten games SU
• Missouri has won five of its last six road games SU
• Missouri has played of its last 18 road games OVER the total
• Texas A&M has won five of its last six home games SU

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We liked what we saw last year out of Gabbert; we really did. The guy was a warrior, playing hurt, and he had nice size and a big arm and was not coming into the easiest situation in the world in replacing an institution in Chase Daniel. I don’t know that you can disparage what he has done this season all that much, and the connection he’s made with T.J. Moe is legitimate. No, Missouri hasn’t faced opposition that quite compares with A&M, but we don’t want to be so dismissive of Colorado, which had come off back-to-back wins over Hawaii and Georgia.  I don’t know that Missouri’s #19 ranking factors all that much into this, but for anyone who has experience betting in the college football sportsbook, you know that already.

A&M has some nasty talent on offense, but lately that talent has been playing amidst a sea of mistakes. Maybe the difference in this game is that while we have to admit that Texas A&M has put together some interesting balance under Mike Sherman, and QB Johnson looks like he has NFL-type dimensions, you just can’t turn the ball over like the Aggies do (18 times on the season) and be very comfortable laying points. Missouri’s special teams could be a factor here, and the veteran secondary (three senior starters) certainly will be.

Inasmuch as we expect that Gabbert will get clearance to play after a hip pointer, we’re taking the points with more disciplined Missouri, the 3.5-point underdog in the college football sportsbook for Saturday.

JAY’S PLAY:  MISSOURI +3.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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