College Football Sportsbook – Arkansas vs. Texas A&M

Arkansas Razorbacks (1-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS)

@ Arlington, TX

Saturday, October 3 – 7:30 PM ET

BetOnline NCAA College Football Sportsbook Odds:  ARKANSAS -1.5, Total 66.5

Here are some of the NCAA college football sportsbook trends as they relate to this matchup:

• ARK has lost nine of its last 13 games SU
• ARK has covered two of its last seven road games
• ARK has lost six of its last seven road games SU
• ARK has played four of its last six road games OVER the total
• A&M has covered two of its last six games
• A&M has played eight of its last 11 games OVER the total
• A&M has covered four of its last six home games
• A&M has won four of its last five home games SU
• A&M has played five of its last seven home games OVER the total

Texas A&M has rung up some very impressive offensive numbers, leading the nation with 574 yards per game, which has done them well in college football sportsbook betting. Of course, there have been some weak teams on the schedule (New Mexico, Utah State, UAB) and all those games have been played at College Station. For this one, they are not visiting the Razorbacks but instead are playing at a neutral site – the brand-new Cowboys Stadium in Arlington.

Sure, no one should expect such gaudy numbers as the caliber of the opposition stiffens, but don’t kid yourself – this A&M team is executing much better this season, and it is due to more maturity on the part of physically-gifted quarterback Jerrod Johnson (961 yards, 9 TD’s, no INT’s), who can call on youngsters who coach Mike Sherman brought into the program, like freshman running back Christine Michael (187 yards in 28 carries), who sat out last week but should be ready for this one, along with sophomores Cyrus Gray and wide receivers Ryan Tannehill and  Uzoma Nwachukwu, who have five touchdown catches between them. The point is, they will be able to score some points against teams as they compete against college football sportsbook numbers.

Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett was sitting on top of the NCAA passing efficiency ratings after the first two weeks of the season, but he sort of imploded against Alabama last week, going just 12-for-35 for 160 yards. Mallett transferred from Michigan when Rich Rodriguez came aboard and changed the offense. He is a drop-back type, and that is the direction Arkansas is going under Bobby Petrino. Against Georgia, a game the Hogs lost 52-41, he threw for 408 yards. He should be able to do some business against A&M, which had its problems on defense last season (allowing 65.5% completions and 5.2 ypc last year) and has to prove itself a bit against better teams this season, so I would expect the Hogs to do some business.

Arkansas’ big problem this season is going to be on the stop unit, where they rank second from the bottom in terms of pass efficiency defense. The Razorbacks are permitting opposing teams to complete 67% and over eleven yards an attempt.

What I’m looking for here is a free-for-all between a couple of teams who realize that, for the most part, they have to go out there and outscore the opponent. With the BetOnline college football sportsbook odds indicating a total of 66.5 points, we’re going OVER that total.

JAY’S PLAY:  OVER 66.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)