College Football Pick: Arizona Wildcats vs Oregon State

Arizona Wildacts (2-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) at Oregon State Beavers (2-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)

Saturday, September 26: 7:30 p.m.

BetOnline.com Football Betting Odds: Oregon State -2 ½, Total 44

As both Oregon State and Arizona enter Saturday’s Pac-10 opener, they’re each trying to forget a disastrous out of conference game from just a week ago.

For Arizona, it was a trip halfway across the country to face the Iowa Hawkeyes. The Wildcats played like they’d seen the Children of the Corn, as they had just eight first downs, were just 2-12 on third down conversions and barely had 250 yards of total offense in a 27-17 loss that really wasn’t nearly as close as the final score would indicate.

The opposite was true for Oregon State. They tallied close to 350 yards of total offense and seemed to be in the game with Cincinnati until the final seconds of the game. But like Arizona, they suffered a 10 point loss, theirs 28-18.

When these two teams get together Saturday, they’re likely going to try to attack each other offensively the same way: with a powerful running game.

Oregon State relies on the much heralded Rodgers brothers, and last Saturday James and Jacquizz didn’t disappoint. Against Cincinnati, they combined for 140 yards rushing, with James catching an additional 11 passes.

But coming into this Saturday’s game, the question is, who is going to hand them the ball? Sean Canfield has been the starter, and while he’s guided the Beavers to two victories, has hardly been spectacular. Breathing down his neck is Lyle Moevao, last year’s starter who is just about 100 percent healthy after offseason surgery. Canfield will likely start, although both quarterbacks will likely get playing time.

Of course it really won’t matter who’s under center if Oregon State can’t shore up their defense, especially the defensive backfield. Last weekend, Tony Pike of Cincinnati picked them apart for 332 yards passing and two touchdowns. Just a week before, UNLV had 228 yards passing themselves.

Luckily for the Beavers, Arizona much prefers to attack opponents on the ground then through the air. They are led by Nic Grisby, who through three games has averaged 130 yards per contest and over eight yards a carry. The Wildcats aren’t nearly as comfortable in the air, where Matt Scott completed just four passes last Saturday against Iowa.

This is the exact reason why Oregon State should be favored in this one. The one place where Arizona might be able to take advantage offensively, through the air, is not their strong suit.

If both teams try to grind it out on the ground, Oregon State has the better personnel at running back and in the defensive front seven, as well as a home field advantage.

Look for Oregon State to cover the 2 ½ point spread.

Aaron’s Pick: Oregon State -2 ½