College Football Pick – Kentucky Tries to Build on Shaky Opener

The Kentucky Wildcats won one in-state game against Louisville. Now they’ll try to win another game involving two more teams who reside in Bluegrass Country.  Here’s a preview and a college football pick.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Kentucky Wildcats 
Saturday, September 11th – 7:30 PM ET 
Commonwealth Stadium, Lexington, KY 
Broadcast: ESPN3.com / GamePlan 
College Football Odds: Western Kentucky +24.5, Kentucky -24.5  

Total: 54

It’s always satisfying to win a heated rivalry game, and that’s what the Kentucky Wildcats did in their 2010 season opener. The head coaches were different, the stadium was different, the year was different, but in the end the result was the same. Kentucky defeated Louisville 23-16 in newly expanded Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium. The Wildcats jumped out to a 20-6 halftime lead and held off a furious Louisville rally late to give new head coach Joker Phillips his first win as a head coach. He is the first Kentucky head coach to win his first game since Hal Mumme.

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College Football Pick: What Western Kentucky Has To Do To Win 

The Hilltoppers face another imposing challenge this weekend. The team that’s trying to compete at the FBS level after being a regular playoff team at the FCS level earlier in the decade is manifestly struggling. WKU went 0-12 in 2009 and has now lost 21 straight games after dropping its opener to Nebraska, 49-10. Western Kentucky allowed 536 yards and committed two turnovers while falling behind 35-3 after three periods. Quarterback Kawaun Jakes is very inconsistent. He hit only 12 of 22 passes against Nebraska and threw one interception. Jakes must avoid turnovers and hit at least 65 percent of his passes for Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to have any shot. Turning Kentucky over and creating short fields is another absolute must, given the enormity of the talent disparity between these two teams. Coming up with hidden-yardage plays on special teams plus outright scores on returns or blocked kicks will also need to enter into the mix for WKU. This is where the Hilltoppers really could thrive – Kentucky kicker Ryan Tydlacka missed a PAT and a chip-shot field goal in Kentucky’s closer-than-it-should-have-been win over Louisville this past Saturday. 

College Football Pick: What Kentucky Has To Do To Win 

Get the ball to Randall Cobb, and get out of the way. 

The Wildcats’ attack against Louisville was led by all-purpose superstar wide receiver Randall Cobb. Lining up as both a wide receiver and as a dual threat quarterback, Cobb confused the Louisville defense and dazzled spectators all day. He caught two passes for 19 yards, rushed for 80 yards (including a 54-yard touchdown run), and completed a 19-yard pass with Louisville desperate to make a stop and get the ball back. That play effectively iced the game in favor of the Wildcats.  

Much-maligned quarterback Mike Hartline was once again efficient for Kentucky Wildcats in the Louisville opener. Hartline completed 17 of 26 passes for 217 yards. Most importantly, he did not turn the ball over. If Cobb gets ample touches and Hartline doesn’t turn the ball over, Kentucky will flourish.

College Football Pick: Outlook & Pick 

Western Kentucky should be an FCS program, not an FBS program. The only way WKU covers is if Kentucky has a big letdown after the adrenaline-pumping rivalry-game win over Louisville. It probably won’t happen. Kentucky made a lot of mistakes against Louisville and will want to get better. That’s bad news for the Hilltoppers. 

College Football Point Spread Pick: Kentucky -24.5