College Football Parlay Pick – # 7 USC vs. #24 California

USC Trojans @ California Golden Bears

Saturday, October 3rd – Memorial Stadium – 8:10 PM ET
Line: USC -5, O/U: 47.5

USC: The Week That Was

The Trojans walked away with a 27-6 victory over Washington State, but that’s the only good thing Pete Carroll could take from a generally lackluster performance. Wazzu is a bottom-rung ballclub, and yet USC—after a 20-point flurry in the first quarter—barely dented the scoreboard over the game’s final three periods.

Two failed fourth-down plays near the goal line, a pair of fumbles, a 3-of-9 rate on third-down conversions, and only 24 minutes of possession (23:51, to be exact) all prevented USC from flexing its muscles one week after an upset loss at Washington.

Quarterback Matt Barkley felt pain in his right (throwing) shoulder versus Washington State, but the larger concern for the coaching staff is the offense’s inability to finish drives. Right now, the Trojans are firing on all cylinders defensively, but they’ve yet to find a consistently productive offense in 2009.  

California: The Week That Was

Last Saturday’s 42-3 loss at Oregon was a train wreck, plain and simple. Star running back Jahvid Best never got going against the Ducks’ defense, which knocked back the Golden Bears’ offensive front and also crowded the tackle box to take away the run. Because of the attention Best draws from opposing defenses, Cal quarterback Kevin Riley needed to make Oregon pay for ganging up near the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately, Jeff Tedford’s signal caller couldn’t come through.

Riley, a very inconsistent performer under center, felt the weight of the occasion at Eugene’s Autzen Stadium. By completing just 12-of-31 passes and missing a number of wide-open receivers on deep-intermediate and vertical passing routes, Riley prevented Cal from establishing the kind of offensive balance that would have forced Oregon to re-adjust.  

The Week That Is: 

This game might lack the sex appeal it initially figured to have, but it’s actually even more important in the Pac-10 chase now that both teams have stumbled. USC needs this game badly, but this duel means more for Cal because a loss would put Tedford’s team on the short side of tiebreakers against USC and Oregon. 

This is not a game for fantasy football fanatics; offensive players (including Jahvid Best) don’t figure to thrive in the latest edition of a defense-dominated series. Cal hasn’t scored more than 17 points against USC since 2003, and the Bears have scored more than 10 points only once in the past four meetings against the Trojans.

USC’s offense hasn’t exactly flourished in this rivalry either, even with Mark Sanchez under center last season, USC labored in an ugly 17-3 win over Cal. The Trojans only lead by a 10-3 margin well into the fourth quarter, and didn’t bury the Bears until Sanchez threw a 6-yard touchdown pass with 2:59 left in regulation. It’s hard to see how this game will feature a lot of scoring. Therefore, don’t trust USC minus the points; the game figures to be very close: 17-14 USC sounds about right. 

Pick: Cal +5 & under 47.5