College Football Odds – UAB vs Mississippi St

Those exploring the college football betting lines know that the Mississippi State Bulldogs will have their work cut out for them in dealing with the "letdown factor" after scoring the biggest win over Dan Mullin’s coaching reign, but they must line up against the UAB Blazers this week in an inter-conference matchup.

The game will be played at Davis Wade Stadium (natural turf) in Starkville, MS, televised on ESPNU. In the college football odds, Mississippi State is a 20-point favorite, with a total of 52 points.

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UAB Blazers (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)

Live at Davis Wade Stadium

Starkville, MS

Saturday, October 23 — 7 PM ET

TV: ESPNU

College Football Odds:

Mississippi State -20

UAB +20

Total 52

Key stats for UAB — The Blazers have gained an average of 178.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks them 38th in the country. The leading ground gainer is a quarterback, David Isabelle. There is a "throwing quarterback" as well; Bryan Ellis has passed for 1192 yards and eight touchdowns.

UAB has a permissive pass defense that has allowed 13.3 yards a completion, which is one of the highest figures in the country. Trey Ragland gets the team out of some jams; he’s the 21st-ranked punter in the country.

Key stats for Mississippi State — The Bulldogs are 4-2 ATS in the college football odds because they do a good job defending. They’ve allowed only 16 points per game, and 3.67 yards per rushing attempt. MSU moves the ball pretty well on the ground, in an attack led to Vick Ballard, who has averaged 6.6 yards a carry.

Quarterbacks Chris Relf and Tyler Russell have combined for nine touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Here are some of the football trends as they might impact our betting advice on this game:

• UAB has lost six of its last eight games SU
• UAB has played six of its last eight games OVER the total
• UAB has covered three of its last ten road games
• UAB has lost 21 of its last 25 road games SU
• Mississippi State has won four of its last five games SU
• Mississippi State has won four of its last five home games SU

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Mississippi State kept Heisman Trophy candidate Cameron Newton in relative check when they played Auburn, holding him to 206 yards of total offense in a 17-14 loss.

They looked ridiculous in a 29-7 loss to LSU. but they have come on strong since, rolling past Georgia and Houston, and pulling off its biggest win since Dan Mullin took over last week with a 10-7 victory over Florida, in a game where they had 212 yards on the ground. That makes 851 rushing yards the last three games.

The rushing game and the defense make for a pretty good combination, and MSU has parlayed this into a Top 25 national ranking.

That having been said, I don’t know if this is an offense that is going to pull away from many teams, even if it is not distracted, and that is a factor when laying a lot of points in the college football odds. Chris Relf just isn’t that good a quarterback, and neither is Russell. UAB has an air attack that is a bit better developed, and Bryan Ellis is a guy who will fire away until the end.

If Isabelle can play (questionable with hand injury) that gives them a change of pace at the QB spot. Mullin got a great deal of satisfaction beating former mentor Urban Meyer, and here he’s happy to get out with a "W." We take the points with UAB, the 20-point underdog in the college football odds.

JAY’S PLAY: UAB +20 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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