College Football Odds – Notre Dame Looks to Kelly For Answers

In the college football odds, the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame may be a longshot to win the national title, but Notre Dame is nonetheless looking to Brian Kelly for its short and long-term answers as it begins its 2010 season hosting the Purdue Boilermakers at Notre Dame Stadium (natural turf) in South Bend, IN. It is a new journey as well for an offense that will be without Jimmy Clausen. In the college football odds, Notre Dame is an eleven-point favorite, with the total posted at 55 points.

Purdue Boilermakers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Live at Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
Saturday, September 4 — 3:30 PM ET
TV: NBC

College Football Odds:
Notre Dame -11
Purdue +11
Total 55

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We have no doubt that Brian Kelly will turn things around in South Bend eventually, but it might take a while. There is a lot of excitement about the coach who brought Cincinnati into last season’s Sugar Bowl with an undefeated record, and that is why the Irish are double-digit favorites in the college betting point spread. The Irish return five starters on offense, and some of them are choice. Wide receiver Michael Floyd (18.1 yards per catch) and tight end Kyle Rudolph (33 catches before an injury) will be prime targets of the new guy at the controls, Dayne Crist, who threw just twenty passes last year and waited for the chance to take over for Jimmy Clausen, who was a draft pick of the Carolina Panthers.

Last year was a downer for the Irish, as they had a 6-6 straight-up record and chose not to go to a bowl. What was perplexing was that even with Clausen throwing 28 TD’s with only four interceptions, they could only compile a 4-8 ATS record in the college football odds. Maybe that’s because this team couldn’t stop the run, allowing 4.8 yards a carry, which contributed to permitting 26 points a game.

Here are some of the trends as they impact our analysis of the college betting point spread on this game:

• Purdue has won four of its last six games SU
• Purdue has lost 14 of its last 21 games SU
• Purdue has lost 11 of its last 13 road games SU
• Notre Dame has covered three of its last 11 games
• Notre Dame has lost four of its last five games SU
• Notre Dame has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
• Notre Dame has covered one of its last seven home games
• Notre Dame has won ten of its last 15 home games SU
• Notre Dame has won four of the last five meetings SU
• Notre Dame has won six of the last seven meetings SU as the home team

Notre Dame has a revenge game against Michigan coming up next, and that may affect how the college football odds work in this game, but Purdue suffered a sheer heart-breaker against these Irish last season, and they want to make amends. They’ll try to do so with a slightly different offensive cast. Robert Marve is the new quarterback; he’s a transfer from Miami (FL), where he threw for 1293 and nine TD’s as a freshman. The big blow the Boilermakers suffered was losing Ralph Bolden, their top running back (935 yards last year) to a torn ACL in spring drills, and we’re not sure they can adequately replace him.

Purdue is a mixed bag on defense. They get six of their starting front seven back, but the secondary is rather thin. Those who have observed Crist closely don’t think he can exploit that, although a warning – we have seen what Brian Kelly can do with less material, on shorter notice, when installing his spread offense – witness the 2006 International Bowl, when he stepped in at Cincinnati and led them to a win over Western Michigan (though not a cover in the college football odds).

Notre Dame has experienced some success against Purdue, winning six of the last seven at home and covering eight of the last twelve in South Bend in the college football odds. However, at the same time this team has been poison as a favorite, going 1-8 ATS last year and 6-15 ATS over the last four campaigns. Like we said, Kelly should get this thing going in the right direction, but will it be this soon? Notre Dame might be impressive, but this is still a hefty impost, as we’ll "take" with Purdue in the college football odds for Saturday.

JAY’S PLAY:  PURDUE +11 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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