College Football Odds – Missouri vs Nebraska

Those who are following the college football odds and placing wagers on them may be a bit surprised that the Missouri Tigers are undefeated right now and have a shot at the BCS title, but the win over Oklahoma last week confirms them as a team that is for real; however the present assignment is tough, as they must come right back and play the Nebraska Cornhuskers on the road with no time to celebrate.

The game will take place at 3:30 PM ET at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, NE. In the college football odds for this game, Nebraska is listed as a 7.5-point favorite, with the total on the game posted at 55.5 points.

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Missouri Tigers (7-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-1 SU, 3-3 ATS)

Live at Memorial Stadium

Lincoln, NE

Saturday, October 30 –  3:30 PM ET

TV:   ABC

College Football Odds:

Nebraska  -7.5

Missouri  +7.5

Total  55.5

Here are some of the trends as they might impact the college football odds on this game:

• Missouri has won eleven of its last 12 games SU
• Missouri has won six of its last seven road games SU
• Nebraska has won seven of its last eight games SU
• Nebraska has won 12 of its last 16 home games SU

Key stats for Missouri — The Tigers are fifth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just over 13 points per game. They have made a habit of getting to the quarterback, registering 21 sacks on the season. They are ranked 23rd in rushing defense and 15th in pass efficiency defense, so for purposes of reviewing the college football odds, they are not a cakewalk to go after whether it’s in the air or on the ground. Missouri also protects its quarterback well, allowing just seven sacks. Missouri’s offense usually moves by the pass; Blaine Gabbert has thrown for 1899 yards and eleven TD’s, and has been intercepted only three times. 

Key stats for Nebraska — The Huskers are ranked #2 in the country in pass efficiency defense, and are one of only a handful of teams who have allowed their opponents to complete less than 50% of their passes (48%, to be exact). Nebraska’s opponents have had more success running the ball since the departure of Ndamukong Suh; the Huskers have yielded 4.1 yards a carry and 165 yards a contest on the ground. Taylor Martinez is better known for his running prowess – the freshman has 870 yards and has averaged a robust 8.7 yards a carry – but he is also 20th in the nation in passing efficiency, completing 59% of his passes and suffering only three interceptions.

Here are some of the head-to-head trends that may influence our play against the college football odds on this game:

• Nebraska has won eleven of the last 15 meetings SU
• Nebraska has won seven of the last eight meetings SU as the home team

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Missouri was a home underdog in the college football odds in last year’s meeting (3.5 points, in fact) and looked like it was on its way to a mild upset with a 12-0 lead going into the fourth quarter. Then they allowed 27 unanswered points. Nebraska had a shootout against Oklahoma State last week, and rolled up 51 points behind 540 yards. Martinez was kind of a monster in that game, rushing for 112 yards and throwing for 323 more (by far more than he’s had all season) and five TD’s.

We wonder, however, whether that is more indicative of the sieve-like nature of OSU’s stop unit than Martinez’s pure ability as a passer. The freshman has often looked unsure of himself when forced into situations where he has to throw, and the word is that Missouri has a much more athletic defense this season, and one that is capable of taking away opposing rushing attacks. In fact, the last four opponents have combined for 289 yards, and they’ve won those games in the college football odds. The Tigers will stack the box, we are sure, and leave it up to the frosh to beat them. Remember that Nebraska has put the ball on the ground 24 times, and it’s just their dumb luck that they have recovered 15 of them. Missouri does not put together a big running attack, though they could penetrate Nebraska’s so-so defensive from that way. Blaine Gabbert, who was limping around in last year’s meeting, is healthier this time around. We know that it is tough for Missouri to beat a high-level foe two weeks in a row, but we’re taking the points in the college football odds.

JAY’S PLAY:  MISSOURI +7.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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