College Football Odds – Arkansas vs Texas A&M

Those who like to challenge the college football odds are expecting that there is going to be an offensive display this Saturday at Cowboys Stadium (artificial turf) in Arlington, TX, as the Texas A&M Aggies, playing a wide-open style under coach Mike Sherman, take on the Arkansas Razorbacks, who move the ball with regularity through the air under coach Bobby Petrino, in an inter-conference game that begins at 3:30 PM ET. In the football odds that have been posted on this game, Arkansas is a five-point favorite, with the total on the game posted at 61.5 points. I guess you could say that there are two former NFL coaches opposing each other here, insofar as you could actually call Petrino an "NFL coach."

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Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) at Texas A&M Aggies (3-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)

Live at Cowboys Stadium
Arlington, TX
Saturday, October 9 –  3:30 PM ET
TV:  ABC (Regional)

College Football Odds:
Arkansas -5
Texas A&M +5
Total  61.5

Key stats for Arkansas — It is safe to say that the Razorbacks have completely and totally embraced the pass. They are second in the nation in passing offense, with Ryan Mallett (1438 yards, 69%) leading the way. They are also 102nd in rushing offense, topping a hundred yards only against FCS school Tennessee Tech in the season opener. Arkansas has also been able to get to the quarterback, chalking up 15 sacks on the season to rank third in sacks per game.

Key stats for Texas A&M — The Aggies are fifth in the nation in passing offense, and sixth in total offense, but have missed covering in the football odds in two of their three games. Texas A&M also stands 12th in pass efficiency defense and third in rushing defense, allowing just over 68 yards a game, and although they haven’t faced teams that travel primarily by ground, they did a pretty decent job against Oklahoma State in their last game.

Here are some of the trends as they impact the college football odds on this game:

• Texas A&M has played eight of its last 12 games OVER the total
• Arkansas has won eight of its last ten games SU
• Arkansas has covered six of its last eight games

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We listed the "key stats" above, but let’s also include what might be one of the more telling stats in this matchup, and which should have a big impact in the way you look at the football odds for this contest. It relates to "yards per point," and while opponents have only had to gain 13.8 yards for every point they’ve scored against A&M, they have had to go 20.5 yards for every point they’ve scored against Arkansas. And remember that the Razorbacks have played Georgia, and more importantly Alabama this year. This perhaps gives us insight as to who is going to have an easier time moving the football.

Mallett carved up Alabama’s defense, at least for a half of football, as his Hogs almost pulled off an upset (but won in the football odds as a seven-point dog). He also had his way in the meeting between these two teams last year, with 271 yards and four TD’s. Admittedly, Mallett does not have the balance in his offense that counterpart Jerrod Johnson (61%, 1274 yards) has in accessing Christine Michael (428 yards) out of the backfield.

But I am not convinced that A&M has made sufficient progress overall since last year’s 47-19 beating at the hands of these Hogs, and these Aggies had better get over their penchant for mistakes (14 turnovers the last three games). Please note – no sacks for A&M’s banged-up Von Miller yet, and that’s a load off Mallett’s mind. We’re laying the points with Arkansas, the five-point favorite in the football odds for Saturday.

JAY’S PLAY:  ARKANSAS -5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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