College Football Lock Alert – Western Michigan to Cover Spread against Michigan

The Michigan Wolverines (3-9 SU, 1-7 Conf., 2-8-1 ATS, 7-4 O/U) head coach Rich Rodriguez may be in the midst of one of the ugliest NCAA college football scandals in recent memory, but nevertheless, his team will take the field on Saturday in a matchup against a Western Michigan Broncos (9-4 SU, 6-2 Conf., 5-7 ATS, 7-5 O/U) team that could give them big trouble.

The in-state rivals will battle in Ann Arbor at Michigan Stadium at 3:30 PM ET.

Things couldn’t have gotten much worse in 2008 for the Wolverines in Rich Rodriguez’s first year as the once fabled football program recorded the worst record in its storied history, going a dismal 3-9 while failing to cover the spread very often for college football bettors that were adventurous enough to wager on them.

Michigan ’s offense was mostly inept, finishing dead last in the Big Ten in passing offense and total offense, and the team’s supposedly experienced defense didn’t do much better.

Now, the Wolverines look like they could be in danger of losing their third straight season-opener at Michigan Stadium.

The wolverines return 10 starters on offensive and five on the defensive side of the ball while Western Michigan also returns 10 starters, with seven on offense and three on defense.

The Michigan Wolverines have some big-time unanswered questions at quarterback as the plan is to start redshirt junior Nick Sheridan while freshman Tate Forcier and freshman Denard Robinson also likely see playing time if one or the other struggles, not a good scenario under any circumstance. The Wolverines also have a new defensive coordinator this season in Gregg Robinson.

Western Michigan has one of the best quarterbacks in the nation and a likely early NFL draft pick in strong-armed senior Tim Hiller.

The 6-5 QB threw for a whopping 3,725 yards and 36 touchdowns last season while throwing just 10 interceptions last year. Hiller, an excellent decision-maker with the ball, is as accurate as they come, completing a blistering 65 percent of his passes in 2008.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NCAAF Free Pick:

• Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big Ten.
• Broncos are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall.
• Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
• Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Wolverines are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite.
• Wolverines are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
• Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
• Wolverines are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
• Over is 8- 1 in Broncos last 9 games as a road underdog.
• Over is 7- 1 in Broncos last 8 games in September.
• Under is 7- 2 in Wolverines last 9 games in September.
• Over is 7- 3 in Wolverines last 10 games overall.

NCAAF Odds
Western Michigan +13 -110
Michigan -13 -110
Over 56 -110
Under 56 -110

Analysis: If you know football BetOnline NCAA college football betting enthusiasts, then you know the old saying that goes, ‘If you’ve got two starting quarterbacks, then you’ve got none’ certainly applies to this year’s Michigan Wolverines squad.

Not only do the Wolverines have problems at quarterback, but Rich Rodriguez’s ugly situation has almost certainly taken a toll on the embattled head coach and the players even if no one is publicly admitting it.

The Wolverines are also facing a dangerous Western Michigan squad that could give them big problems. The Broncos have an effective offense that will test the Wolverines’ new-look defense with Hiller taking advantage of any mistakes the Wolverines make.

This pick is as easy as pie college football bettors despite the disparity in the size of each school’s respective football programs as the Western Michigan Broncos will not only cover the high spread here, but push the Wolverines for the outright win.

The Broncos have gone a stellar 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against Big Ten schools, showing their ability to hang with the ‘big boys’ and cash in for college football backers on a consistent basis.

While the Broncos have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and a discouraging 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in September, the Michigan Wolverines have been just awful against the spread, going 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite and a pitiful 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Cementing my selection for Western Michigan is the fact that the Wolverines have gone a winless 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games and 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite. The fact of the matter is that Western Michigan is just too good to lose to the Wolverines by 14 points, even on the road.

I also like the Over in this contest as it has played out in eight of the Broncos last nine games as a road underdog and 7- 3 in Michigan’s last 10 games overall.

Take the Western Michigan Broncos BetOnline NCAA college football backers and don’t look back.

NCAAF Free Picks: Western Michigan +13 Points/Over 56 Total Points